FanDuel. Isaiah Hartenstein has cleared this points line in 6/8 games against the Spurs this season, and 3/5 this series. The two misses were in games 1 and 3, when the Thunder big man only played 12 and 21 minutes, respectively. As OKC has figured out their defensive strategy against Victor Wembanyama, they’ve realized they’ve needed iHart on the court - in Game 5, Hartenstein saw a whopping 31 minutes. Even if that gets scaled back, what’s evident is that Hartenstein’s patented push shot from the mid-post has been a useful tool against the Spurs defense. With Wemby keeping more of a watchful eye on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Hartenstein has capitalized. Look for the Thunder big man to hit four shots tonight.

With a safety net of Game 7, the Thunder do not need to force Jalen Williams to play. So if he does, he's healthy enough to go. He scored 26 in Game 1 and 22 and 19 in the two full games he played vs. the Suns in the first round. He game one vs. the Spurs, he took 25 shots, playing 37 minutes. If he suits up tonight, he should play enough minutes to get us 13 or more points.

In this year's postseason, a team off a loss who is favored in the next contest is 20-7-1 winning the first quarter of the next game. In this particular series, it's 4-0-1 for the the team to rebound in the first. Victor Wembanyama usually wins the tip, so it starts with the Spurs, who come out to win the first quarter here.

Can’t blame someone for talking themselves into Oklahoma City tonight, especially with my Knicks already prepping for the Finals. This is only the 6th time this season that Oklahoma City have been underdogs, going 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS. Following a loss, the Spurs are 35-11 SU, 18-8 ATS, and have won six of the last 10 games against Oklahoma City. The Thunder have all the momentum coming into game six despite without two rotational pieces and Jalen Williams is still questionable, but San Antonio has shown that they aren’t scared of them anyway. The Spurs have a strong home court, slightly better overall defensive numbers to push this to a game seven.

Thunder guard Cason Wallace has cleared this prop total in four of the five games in this series. The exception came when OKC got blown out and Wallace was relegated to 21 minutes. Lu Dort is playing fewer minutes, which means more opportunities for Wallace.

This feels like a natural spot to fade Alex Caruso, who has inarguably had the best series of his career, especially from a scoring standpoint against San Antonio. Caruso has never averaged 11 PPG in a single season, nor has he done that in a playoff series, so needless to say this is a lofty line for him. Role players typically struggle on the road and I expect Caruso to come back down to earth tonight.

Game five we saw Chet Holmgren finally be aggressive offensively. He had eight quick points in the first quarter, but had a sloppy second half. He scored just one field goal in the second half, and was not on the court the final seven and a half minutes. Expect Holmgren to take that to heart, and play an efficient game for four quarters.

Victor Wembanyama scored only 20 points on 4-of-15 shooting in the Spurs’ Game 5 loss to OKC. It’s clear the Spurs need Wemby to score to be successful. In their two wins, he has 41 and 33 points. In the three losses, 21, 26 and 20. He shot 22 and 25 times in the wins, and 15 or 16 in the defeats. The Spurs are unbeaten in the playoffs when he shoots 18 or more times, and 6-6 when he doesn’t. It’s do-or-die time, so the Spurs must feed the beast.

FanDuel. With Ajay Mitchell ruled out, and Jalen Williams once again deemed questionable, I’m going right back to the Cason Wallace rebounds + assists well. The defensive whiz is now over this line in 9/13 playoff games, including 4/5 in this series. Over the last four games, Wallace is averaging 14.5 total chances per game - for context, he averaged 5.7 R+A on 11.6 chances in the regular season. If Williams goes (I tend to think not, with the Thunder leading 3-2), he will be limited, and likely carving into Jared McCain’s minutes. With Lu Dort struggling this series, Wallace has a secure minutes floor, and I envision him continuing to contribute in Game 6.

Discounting the ugly Game 4 that featured just 185 points, the other four games have produced 231, 235, 237 and 241. That’s more on par with season results. On the year, these teams allowed a combined 218.4 ppg, but they also scored 238.

My favorite prop play all series. After barely playing in Game 1, OKC adjusted and gave their starting center Isaiah Hartenstein more minutes. The result: R/A totals of 18 and 12 the next two games. He got 31 minutes in Game 5 and had 15 rebounds and four assists (plus 12 points). He should continue to get time on the court. This is still below his 12.9 R/A season average. I'll back it again.

After playing just 12 minutes in Game 1, Isaiah Hartenstein has taken on a huge role in this series. He's the best primary defender on Victor Wembanyama, and his presence has limited San Antonio's offensive rebounding. So Hartenstein should continue to play substantial minutes. He's also in rhythm with his patented floater, shooting 12 of 19 in the past two games. Back Hartenstein to score eight or more points in Game 6.

Luke Kornet is averaging 11 minutes per game in this series. He scored at least four points in three of the five games. He is shooting 63.6% from the field for the series and shot 67.6% from the field at home during the regular season. Across eight home playoff games, he scored at least two points seven times. All we need is one bucket from a very efficient scorer who is also a good offensive rebounder. Take this over.

De’Aaron Fox has played at least 31 minutes in all three games since returning from his ankle injury. He hasn’t been scoring a ton, but he has contributed in other areas. He has provided at least 12 combined rebounds and assists in all three games. Across five regular season games against the Thunder, he averaged 3.6 rebounds and 6.2 assists. I’ll take this over again.

DraftKings. Dylan Harper has cleared this rebounding prop line in 11/15 full playoff games, including 3/4 against the Thunder. Looking to be relatively past his adductor issue, Harper has contributed with 5 and 6 boards over the last two games, with nine rebound chances in each game. The Spurs have effectively gone to a 7-man rotation (plus some Luke Kornet minutes to spell Victor Wembanyama), which puts Harper at 24-28 minutes. The Spurs rookie has benefited from his halfcourt role as a baseline cutter when Wemby has the ball at the high post, crashing the offensive glass. And defensively, Harper has been active as the Thunder continue to wall off Wemby (18 total rebounds over the last three games).