Expert Picks
Take the over despite the juicy price tag ...
I’m taking over 3.5 goals in this one. Galatasaray have scored 2.3 goals per league match while generating 2.36 xG and 21.8 shots per game. They’ve cleared 3.5 goals in 70% of their league matches, including 60% at home. Stuttgart aren't exactly defensive juggernauts, conceding 1.88 goals and 2.40 xGA per league match. That jumps to 2.47 xGA away from home. They've also kept just one clean sheet in eight league matches. What I really like is the attacking volume. These teams combine for 38.4 shots and 13.6 shots on target per league match. With both sides capable of scoring multiple goals, I see plenty of opportunities for this to turn into a shootout.
Over 3.5 goals has paid off in Real Betis' last three matches. They thrashed Osasuna 5-2 and battled to a 3-2 win against Porto, before losing 5-2 to Barcelona at the weekend. Los Verdiblancos are dangerous in attack, but their defense is weak. Over 3.5 goals has also landed in nine of Feyenoord's last 10 games. They beat Como 3-2 in their last Champions League match, before battling to a 4-3 victory over Telstar at the weekend.
I love the Asian total over 3 goals here. This feels like a game that starts at 2-1 either way, especially with how leaky both teams have been defensively. Porto have played in some high-scoring matches recently, including 3-2 against Betis, 3-1 against Benfica and 4-1 against Casa Pia. PSV haven't seen as many overs, but they've struggled defensively against teams capable of scoring, conceding three against Twente and four against Sparta Rotterdam. More importantly, anytime I get an opportunity to back goals in a Peter Bosz match, I'm interested. I prefer over 3 for the protection, but at +125, there's enough value on over 3.5 to justify taking the bigger number.
Aston Villa gave everyone a bit of a shock to start the season off. They didn't score in their first few matches and everyone wrote them off saying this team was going to be a terror all season long. Well now their last six matches have all seen BTTS and Over 2.5 goals hit. Five goals, three goals, four goals, five goals, four goals and four goals. This team fixed their offense but their defense somehow got worse? I'm not going to question it. I'm going to happily bet BTTS + Over 2.5 goals and watch Fenerbahce's more than competent attack give them a run for their money!
This is a weird match because I would wager the majority of bettors will be on the under for this one. It's very easy to look at Porto and go "WOW! They average only .5 goals conceded per game this season, they'll go under!" I get this logic and I understand Porto has a good defense. But a good defense when you're playing Academico de Viseu is different than playing Real Betis. Plus, Porto have conceded in their last four straight. Real Betis on the other hand is flying high and pressing everyone. I expect this game to be a cheeky over, and I would add BTTS to get it to plus odds too!
I'm sure you've all noticed by now I specifically target the matches that I think will have goals. Which is why I am once against targeting any match that features Club Brugge. Club Brugge are the Belgian Bayern Munich in the sense they only know how to attack. They could be down 2-0 at half or up 2-0 at half and nothing changes. They just look for more goals. We saw this play out when they lost 3-2 to Aston Villa in their UCL opening. It's amazing they just have their foot on the gas the whole game. Inter defense has been lackluster the last month which means this game should be fun for over bettors.
I know this number is going to scare a lot of people off this wager especially since Bayern Munich just embarrassed themselves against Augsburg over the weekend. But that's exactly why I like this bet. Bayern Munich possess possibly the best attacking front three in the world. The problem is, their defense is just awful. Bayern can score three against anyone, but they're dropping a couple along the way, especially against a Viking side that knows nothing other than a high press. This game could have 6+ goals and I have no problem paying a lil juice for a crazy number.
I played over 3 at bet365, but over 2.5 works just as well for the column. Two of Atletico Madrid’s three home matches have gone over the total this season, and Atletico has scored at least twice in every match. Manchester United have shown similar attacking potential, but my biggest concern is how leaky they’ve been defensively, especially against inferior competition. They conceded twice away to both Hull and Everton. Still, with Matheus Cunha, Bryan Mbeumo and Bruno Fernandes leading the attack, United have plenty of firepower to contribute offensively. I expect United to find the back of the net, and Atletico should have little trouble scoring at least twice at home. That gets us over 2.5.
Doesn't this feel like one of those matches where defending is optional? Sabah have been incredibly leaky defensively, but they've also shown an ability to score goals when games get stretched. On the other side, Slavia Prague have plenty of attacking firepower, but they're no strangers to getting caught in wide-open matches themselves. This feels like the perfect recipe for goals. Both teams have enough attacking quality to punish defensive mistakes, and neither side inspires much confidence in keeping a clean sheet. I expect an open, end-to-end match with plenty of scoring opportunities. The over 2.5 is a little juiced, so I'm not going the full 1.5 units, but I want some action before this number gets any higher.
This promises to be an entertaining game, as over 2.5 goals has paid off in all three of Roma’s matches so far this season. They thumped Fiorentina 4-0 in their opener, before beating Lecce 4-0 and Atalanta 2-1. Forwards Donyell Malen and Paulo Dybala are in superb form, which bodes well for their chances of winning this game. Fenerbahçe lost 2-1 to Beşiktaş at the weekend, but they’ve scored in all of their matches so far this season. The defense is leaky, but they have dangerous forwards like Mason Greenwood and Vedat Muriqi, so this should be a high-scoring clash.
Club Brugge are a team with a good amount of UCL and UEFA pedigree. The giants out of the Belgian Jupiler are known for their fast and aggressive pace when playing at home. This is a club that will smell blood in the water against an Aston Villa side who has started off the Premier League season in an embarrassing fashion. Villa are the better team but the form their in doesn't give me confidence and I expect a shootout to follow.
I know that AEK are a team some people might not be fully aware of, but they do have some big name and very in form attackers in their roster. Hungarian striker Banabas Varga already has four goals in the teams opening three matches, while former Milan player Luka Jovic has picked up couple of goals as well. This is a team that will only win if they attack, because their defense does leave a lot to be desired. If you don't want the -150 juice don't be afraid to throw BTTS into this wager as well!
This could be a high-flying match, but history suggests it’s more likely to be a snoozefest than a barn burner. Before PSG’s 5-0 win over Inter Milan last year, six straight Champions League finals went under 2.5 goals. Arsenal are built to play slow and controlled, and their defense has been elite. They have conceded just 0.43 goals per match in the Champions League and 0.71 domestically. PSG are not exactly slouches defensively either. Add in the fact that BTTS has not hit in seven straight UCL finals, and the under becomes even more enticing. In my eyes, someone wins this 1-0 or 2-0, giving us value on the under.
I know that -170 is a GROSS number, so let me just say I have absolutely no problem taking over 4.5 goals, and over 5.5 goals, and over 6.5 goals. This is the kind of match you want to consider (responsibly) doing a bit of a goal ladder. We saw a record breaking nine goals in the first leg, and both managers after the match said they were changing nothing about how they're playing this second leg. Both managers play an extremely aggressive line urging their players to attack. I think we see at least six goals in this game, so even at -170 this line feels like a gift.