Estadio Do Dragao
Porto
POR
Last 5 ML
W/L0-3
ATS0-0
O/U1-2-0
FINAL SCORE
0
-
1
PSV
PSV
Last 5 ML
W/L1-1
ATS0-0
O/U0-3-0
Last 5 ML
0-3
Win /Loss
1-1
0-0
Spread
0-0
1-2-0
Over / Under
0-3-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER
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High number but obviously I'd prefer -0.5 to -1 or -1.5, which are our other options. Porto lost its UCL home opener Man City, and no shame in that, but has dropped only two of its past 18 home games in major European competition overall (12 wins) and not two in a row since 2022. Porto is unbeaten in the past eight at home vs. Dutch foes (seven wins). Eindhoven has a long list of players either out or in question led by Guus Til and Ruben Van Bommel and has just two wins overall in its past 12 in this competition. It has a single win in Portugal in eight tries overall. The model has Porto by about a half-goal.
I love the Asian total over 3 goals here. This feels like a game that starts at 2-1 either way, especially with how leaky both teams have been defensively. Porto have played in some high-scoring matches recently, including 3-2 against Betis, 3-1 against Benfica and 4-1 against Casa Pia. PSV haven't seen as many overs, but they've struggled defensively against teams capable of scoring, conceding three against Twente and four against Sparta Rotterdam. More importantly, anytime I get an opportunity to back goals in a Peter Bosz match, I'm interested. I prefer over 3 for the protection, but at +125, there's enough value on over 3.5 to justify taking the bigger number.
