Atlanta will play two nationally televised prime-time games in the 2020 NFL schedule; every other Atlanta game but one starts at 1 p.m. ET. The team only has back-to-back road games once, and it's the final two games of the year. In fact, no team may have a tougher final three games than the Dirty Birds as they face Brady twice and Mahomes in the middle of those two vs. Brady's Bucs. If there's a soft spot, it's Weeks 7-10 with three games vs. teams with losing records from last year and the perfectly-placed bye. Travel-wise, the Falcons are in good shape with only one trip to the West Coast.
Ryan is 109-80 straight up as a starter in the NFL (missed one game last year and two in 2009) and the Falcons have covered the spread in 52.1 percent of his starts, going 97-89-3 ATS. As a home underdog, Ryan is an excellent 11-6 ATS -- the Falcons were home dogs three times in 2019 and were 1-2 ATS. On the Over-Under, Atlanta is 85-100-4 with Ryan and the average total has been 47.5.
By one metric, the Falcons have the toughest schedule in the NFL this year: Combined opponents' Over-Under win totals from William Hill sportsbook. The NFC South has a projected combined winning percentage of .547 that's No. 1 in the league, and the Falcons also play the toughest division in the AFC, the West (.531).
Bettors may want to wager on the Under in Week 4 when Atlanta visits Green Bay as the Under has hit in 11 straight Falcons games the week before hosting Carolina -- which they do Week 5. Also consider backing the Chiefs in Week 16 as the Falcons are 1-8 ATS in their past nine after hosting the Bucs.
ATLANTA FALCONS BETTING PROFILE
2019 record: 7-9 (second, NFC South)
2019 against the spread: 8-8
2019 ATS margin: +1.1
2019 Over-Under: 7-9
2020 strength of schedule: Tied as fifth-toughest; Falcons' opponents combined for a .525 winning percentage last year (134-121-1).
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WILLIAM HILL 2020 ATLANTA FALCONS FUTURES ODDS
Win total: 7.5 (both -110)
To make playoffs: No -300, yes +240
Division: +6000 to win NFC South
Conference: +2000 to win NFC
Super Bowl 55: +6000 to win first Super Bowl in franchise history
NFL MVP: QB Matt Ryan +3300, WR Julio Jones +20000
Defensive Player of the Year: S Deion Jones +6600
Defensive Rookie of the Year: CB AJ Terrell +5000
Coach of the Year: Dan Quinn +2800
SportsLine Model's projection: 6.7 wins (Pick is Under)
ATLANTA FALCONS GAME-BY-GAME BETTING TRENDS
Week 1 vs. Seattle, 1 PM ET: The Falcons are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home openers. They covered their third straight vs. Seattle last year in a 27-20 home loss as 7.5-point dogs.
Week 2 at Dallas, 1 PM ET: The Falcons' three-game ATS & SU win streak in this series ended in the last meeting (2018).
Week 3 vs. Chicago, 1 PM ET: Consider the Under as it has hit in nine of the past 10 meetings.
Week 4 at Green Bay, 8:15 PM ET (Monday): The total has gone Over in five straight meetings.
Week 5 vs. Carolina, 1 PM ET: The Falcons are on a five-game ATS & SU winning streak at home in the series after last year's 40-20 win.
Week 6 at Minnesota, 1 PM ET: The Falcons are 0-4 SU & ATS in the past four meetings following a 28-12 road loss in Week 1 last year.
Week 7 vs. Detroit, 1 PM ET: This is the first meeting since 2017 but the Falcons own a five-game ATS win streak vs. the Lions.
Week 8 at Carolina, 8:20 PM ET (Thursday): The Under is 19-6 in 25 all-time meetings in Charlotte.
Week 9 vs. Denver, 1 PM ET: This is the Broncos' first visit since 2012. The Under is 3-0 in the past three meetings.
Week 10: BYE. Almost right in the middle -- perfect.
Week 11 at New Orleans, 1 PM ET: One of 2019's biggest upsets was the Falcons (+14) winning 26-9 at New Orleans last year.
Week 12 vs. Las Vegas, 1 PM ET: Atlanta is 6-4 SU but 4-6 ATS in its past 10 home games vs. AFC West foes.
Week 13 vs. New Orleans, 1 PM ET: Atlanta lost to the visiting Saints 26-18 in 2019 and is 1-4 ATS in the past five home meetings.
Week 14 at LA Chargers, 4:25 PM ET: Atlanta is 7-0 SU and ATS in its last seven games at AFC West foes.
Week 15 vs. Tampa Bay, 1 PM ET: The Falcons haven't been home underdogs vs. the Bucs since November 2007 but may well be this year vs. Tom Brady.
Week 16 at Kansas City, 1 PM ET: This is Atlanta's first-ever matchup against Patrick Mahomes; the Over is 5-0 in the past five meetings.
Week 17 at Tampa Bay, 1 PM ET: Atlanta won its fourth in a row in Tampa (2-2 ATS) last year as a 1-point dog.
Some trends contributed by SDQL Gurus
EXPERT PICK FROM FORMER VEGAS BOOKMAKER MICAH ROBERTS: Under 7.5 wins (+100)
The Falcons closed out 2019 strong with four straight wins, which saved Quinn's job, and it's possible they carry the momentum into 2020 with game-breaker Todd Gurley joining the offense, but getting eight or more wins seems a bit far fetched in a top-heavy division. It looks like another 7-9 season with a very ordinary defense. Under 7.5 wins is the play.
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