Computer updates Falcons' projected win total
The SportsLine Projection Model has updated its projected win totals after the first wave of NFL free agency.
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After blowing a 28-3 lead against the Patriots in Super Bowl LI and then losing in the divisional round of the NFL Playoffs the following year, the Atlanta Falcons have posted back-to-back 7-9 seasons. Matt Ryan is going to be 35 in May and the franchise knows that its window to capitalize on his talents as the franchise quarterback is closing, so they feel an urgency to get back into contention quickly.
Offensively, the Falcons finished inside the top 10 for total yards for the sixth consecutive season in 2019 but finished outside the top 10 in scoring (13th) for the fourth time during that span, so red-zone efficiency is going to be of the utmost importance to them on that side of the ball. However, it's getting right on the defensive side of the ball that's the greatest priority after finishing in the bottom 10 of the NFL in scoring defense (23rd) for the fifth time in seven seasons.
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The Falcons lost Desmond Trufant, Vic Beasley and De'Vondre Campbell on the defensive side of the ball during the first wave of NFL free agency, but they gave Dante Fowler Jr. a three-year, $45 million contract coming off an 11.5-sack season with the Rams. Now Atlanta will be looking for the 25-year-old to continue his ascension as a pass-rusher and provide reliable productivity they didn't get from Beasley.
On the other side of the ball, the Falcons answered the call of their fans and brought Todd Gurley back to Georgia quickly after he was released by the Rams, signing him to a one-year, $5 million deal. If he can stay healthy, he could give the Atlanta offense a workhorse that helps take the pressure off Ryan, Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley in the passing game. However, the Falcons will now be without two-time Pro Bowl tight end Austin Hooper after he signed with the Browns.
All in all, the Falcons didn't have the salary cap space to do a ton of damage in free agency, but they still landed a couple of potential impact players. Now, with roughly $2.5 million in remaining cap space, Atlanta will likely have to make some cuts or restructure existing contracts to create enough space just to sign its draft picks. And this draft class may determine whether or not Dan Quinn keeps his job beyond this season.
With the Buccaneers signing Tom Brady and the Saints adding to its offensive arsenal, the Falcons still have some ground to cover to catch up in the NFC South. The SportsLine Projection Model has simulated the NFL season 10,000 times and predicts that the Falcons win 7.0 games on average and make the playoffs in 13.7 percent of simulations.
That's a slight jump from the 6.9 projected wins the model predicted prior to the start of free agency. Meanwhile, William Hill Sportsbook currently lists the Falcons at 60-1 to win the 2021 Super Bowl, which are tied for eighth-longest odds in the NFL.
Written by Ryan Wooden
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