There may be no team bet heavier Sunday than the Bills, which has exploded this line to a full FG ahead of kickoff. It makes sense to a degree considering Buffalo has won four straight over a variety of different opponents, the last two with talented defenses. Meanwhile, Philadelphia has not beaten a winning team since Nov. 16. The Bills’ lacking defense should allow the Eagles to continue making strides offensively, and Jalen Carter returning should help Philly slow down the hosts’ strong run game. Look for a big game on ground from Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts, who will do enough to put points on the board while running clock and controlling the game. Try to get the hook (+3.5) before kickoff.

Joey Bosa is one sack from a $250K bonus and he probably sits Week 18 if the Bills are locked into their seed, which they very well might be. I'm sure $250K to Joey Bosa is like nickels in his couch cushions, whereas I'd probably go on a worldwide bender for a month. Well, maybe 10 years ago. Now I'd likely just buy yarn or something lame. Certainly Jalen Hurts is not easy to sack, but that we don't even need a full one is nice. Although if I'm Joey B. and closing in on Hurts and a teammate is too, I'm clipping said teammate to get that solo sack.

Ten months too late, say some, sure that the Bills would have put up a better fight vs. the Birds in the Super Bowl than did the Chiefs last February. Both have their playoff berths sealed though Buffalo's enters Sunday still needing some help from someone (unlikely to be the lowly Jets on Sunday) to collar the Patriots in the AFC East race. On the field, we are less convinced about an Eagles surge the past two weeks, and Saquon Barkley appearing back on track, especially as last week was vs. the yielding Commanders. Buffalo's James Cook (1532 YR) is actually the most-productive runner on the field, and Josh Allen to win at home at a near even-money is usually a good deal. Play Bills

Saquon Barkley has scored a touchdown in the last three games. Barkley now gets the Bills' run defense, which has given up the most touchdowns to running backs this season. A lot of rain is expected in Buffalo, so this should be a ground game as well. I can't believe we're getting even money for Barkley to find the endzone on Sunday.

Josh Allen has been cleared from a foot injury and will play as expected, but while the Eagles will get Jalen Carter back, Lane Johnson remains sidelined. That's bad news for an offense that tends to struggle without him on the field. The Bills have averaged more than 33 points at home this season, and while the Eagles defense is strong overall, they gave up 400+ yards in losses to the Cowboys and Bears, both finding success in different ways. I trust Allen to go get a needed win here, and I'm not ruling out the Eagles pulling key players early to avoid injury with the 1 seed out of reach.

Allen grabbed at his foot after trying to avoid a sack and then really struggled in the second half (6 of 12 passing for 44 yards) last week. Here come the Eagles, who have allowed the lowest completion rate, the fourth-lowest yards per attempt, and the seventh-lowest yards per game on the season. They've been even better than that over the last four weeks. Their pass rush will only get stronger with Jalen Carter set to return. And if the weather's bad, that adds a whole other wrinkle: Current forecasts imply some rain but moderate wind with gusts as strong as 25 miles per hour.

Buffalo has been outstanding at home not just this year but the past few seasons with Josh Allen. One catch? The Eagles are the better team right now and there's a non-zero chance Josh Allen is limited Sunday with a foot injury. Even if Allen is a full-go I don't anticipate this game getting to a flat 3 so we'll bite now on the dog and see if the injury report works in our favor this week for a game I think the Eagles win outright.