FanDuel. Tyler Shough has cleared this line in five of his last six games. Playing well, and with the Saints clearly prioritizing his development, this is an excellent spot against the Titans 27th ranked pass defense (per FTN’s DVO). The Saints have no running game to speak of right now, as they’re with their top three running backs. I’d bet this up to over 231.5 yards.

A quiet growth on a poor team this season has been top pick Cam Ward. The Titans have won two out of their last three games, and have scored 24 or more points in four out of their last five games. Ward has also thrown multiple touchdown passes in three straight games for the first time this season. Look for Ward to take the matchup to heart as he did when facing fellow rookie Shedeur Sanders, as he sees Tyler Shough of the Saints. Play Dike’s over.

The Saints are 11-4 to the under this season, and 3-0 to the under when playing as the favorite. These are two of the least potent offenses in the league, with Tennessee ranking 30th and New Orleans dead last in explosive plays. The Saints are also 32nd in red zone efficiency. New Orleans has played to games under this low total in 4 of their last 5. About 70% of the public bets are on the over, yet this total just won’t tick up to the key number of 40. Looks like bait for over bettors. Give me a gross under in an ugly game.

Significant progress made by each of these sides in recent weeks but a bit more compelled by what we've seen lately from the Saints. It's three wins on the spin by a resurgent New Orleans, which also owns recent wins on the road at NFC South rivals Carolina and Tampa Bay. The defense has been an unsung star, allowing a tick under 16 ppg the last six, while Louisville rookie Tyler Shough is looking like a real NFL QB, chalking up his first 300-yard passing game as a pro in last week's 29-6 romp past the Jets. Tennessee has also improved, winning 2 of 3, though the offense has remained mostly stop-start with rookie Cam Ward at QB. Play Saints

Chris Olave has been excellent with Tyler Shough and I don't see that tailing off this week against a pass funnell Titans defense. With Devaughn Vele out we are seeing an even more condensed target share with Olave and Juwan Johnson as the primary targets. I think Olave is primed to have another ceiling game as he dominates the target share and air yard share for the Saints.

The Saints don't have much at running back right now, and they're heading into a matchup against the NFL's top pass-funnel defense. That leads me to believe Tyler Shough -- who threw for 239-plus yards in five of the past six games -- will be passing often. It doesn't hurt that New Orleans is pushing Shough for Offensive Rookie of the Year. The Saints passed 49 times in a comfortable win over the Jets last week. Shedeur Sanders threw for 364 yards against the Titans a few weeks ago, then Brock Purdy threw for 295. Even Chris Oladokun went 11 of 16 for 111 yards in just over a half. It's hard to run on Jeffery Simmons and company, so look for a pass-heavy script.

Over the past two games, Chris Olave has caught 16 of 25 targets for 233 yards. I'm expecting more of the same against the Titans -- the top pass-funnel defense. Opponents are throwing 6.3 percent above expectation vs. Tennessee. With Devaugh Vele out and relative unknowns at the other wideout positions, Olave is competing for targets mainly with Juwan Johnson. Several books haven't posted yardage numbers for Olave yet, but I'm betting they won't be lower than this.

These two teams are a combined 5-1 over the last three weeks after starting 3-21, and while the Saints have looked like the better team in that stretch, I don't think they deserve to lay a full field goal on the road here. They clearly have no confidence in their healthy RBs after throwing it 50 times and giving Taysom Hill 12 rushing attempts (more than both RBs combined), so if Alvin Kamara continues to sit out, the Titans defense can concentrate on slowing a one-dimensional attack. Cam Ward's two best games came the last two weeks, and the Titans run game has looked great the last three weeks. I'd make this pick 'em.