Neither the Packers nor Ravens are operating at their top level right now, especially with a pair of backup quarterbacks leading them Saturday night. While Snoop Huntley is more than solid, Malik Wills is a top-five backup, winning both starts last season and playing well in place of Jordan Love last week against a Bears team the Pack knows they should have defeated. The Ravens are facing elimination, knowing their playoff chances are slim, while Green Bay can get back into the NFC North race considering Chicago’s forthcoming schedule. Willis’ legs should be the difference as long Derrick Henry does not simply explode. This is a play under a field goal, as are overs for most of Willis’ props.

Josh Jacobs does not carry an injury designation. The Packers have clinched a playoff berth but are still playing for the division title. With Malik Willis starting, Jacobs becomes more important as a receiving outlet. The Ravens give up 6.53 targets per game to opposing running backs, tied for second-most.

DraftKings. Malik Willis is in line to start for the injured Jordan Love, and I’m banking on him going over his rushing yard line. Last week, after replacing Love in the second quarter, Willis ran for 44 yards on ten carries. Last season, in two spot starts, the mobile quarterback ran for 41 and 73 yards. He’ll face a Ravens defense that runs man coverage at the seventh highest rate, which has lent to an above average scramble rate for opposing quarterbacks. I’d bet this up to over 34.5 rush yards.

Put on hold the anticipated matchup of high-profile QBs Lamar Jackson and Jordan Love. Both appear certain to sit out, with Green Bay evidently opting for banged-up backup Malik Willis, who was listed as questionable Thursday. The Ravens' Tyler Huntley would not be a severe dropoff in light of the constantly ailing Jackson looking mortal this season, but he confronts the league's No. 6 defense. In seven home gigs, Green Bay has yielded between six and 21 points.

It looks like a real possibility that we'll get Tyler Huntley Vs. Malik Willis. If we do get both backup QBs, oddsmakers can't set this total low enough. Lamar Jackson is unlikely to play, and even if Jordan Love starts I still like the under at 40 or better. Willis is also dealing with a shoulder injury, and Green Bay's offensive line is banged up. There's an illness going through the Packers locker room too, making WR Christian Watson's status 'questionable.' The Packers are 5-2 to the Under at home this season. The Ravens are eliminated, and the Packers clinched their playoff berth with the Lions loss. Green Bay just needs to stay healthy. This will be a run-heavy game that stays under the total.

This sets up as potentially a high volume outing for Derrick Henry who will face the Packers Saturday. Green Bay is the biggest run funnel in the league, and without Lamar Jackson under center for Baltimore, I expect plenty of work for the Ravens RB. The Packers invite competitive game environments and in a must win game without Lamar Jackson, Iook for the Ravens to limit Tyler Huntley’s dropbacks. I like taking a volume based approach here.

In all likelihood this is a backup QB battle, with Lamar Jackson looking doubtful for the Ravens, and Jordan Love ruled out for the Packers. Yet the drop-off to Malik WIllis on the GB side seems less drastic than Baltimore with Tyler Huntley, who while an upgrade from others out of the Ravens bullpen (like Cooper Rush earlier this year), still rates a big downgrade from Jackson, reflected in Baltimore offensive numbers minus Lamar in recent years. Even with a playoff berth now secure, the Pack still has a shot at the NFC North with Chicago looking at two tough games, so GB's effort should be focused. Meanwhile, the epitaph seems to be written for the 2025 Ravens, likely to miss the postseason. Play Packers