Not only is this a must-win for the Lions, they have a huge offensive advantage with Max Brosmer starting behind a Vikings offensive line missing key players. Brosmer threw for 126 yards and 4 INT behind a healthier line (against the Seahawks' better defensive line, to be fair). While Minnesota’s defense will cause problems, it’s nothing Detroit should be unable to sort out – and the Lions know the door is fully cracked open for them to sneak into the playoffs with the Packers’ top two QBs injured. Dan Campbell will have Detroit ready for an all-in performance. If the Lions operate at their peak offensively, the Vikings should not be able to match them score for score – even at home on a holiday.

DraftKings. Jalen Redmond has cleared this line in six of ten games out of the Vikings bye, coinciding with him becoming a full time player on the Vikings defensive line. Arguably the Vikings best run stopper inside, Redmond should thrive today against the Lions rushing attack. The Lions allow the ninth most tackles per game as a team, but specifically the third most against defensive lineman (per PFF). I’m expecting the Lions to dominate time of possession, in a game that should favor them gamescript-wise.

Amon-Ra St. Brown has destroyed the Vikings. In 9 career games against Minnesota, St. Brown is averaging 92 receiving yards per game. When these teams last met, St. Brown had 9 receptions on 13 targets for 97 yards. He is over this mark in 5 straight games against Brian Flores’ defense, and in 8 games this season. The Lions are not fully eliminated from playoff contention, and should be playing hard coming off consecutive losses. I like St. Brown to go off today.

The Vikings’ pass defense is so stout, opponents are running the ball against them at the league’s highest rate. Blake Cashman is coming off a 16-tackle performance and has cleared this prop total in seven of his last nine games. With the Vikings starting Max Brosmer, they could be less apt to sustain drives. That would give Detroit more time of possession and Cashman more opportunities.

The Lions still have to care on Thursday but might be eliminated from playoff contention on Saturday night. I thought Vikings QB Max Brosmer's INT line would be quite a bit higher after he threw four in his first NFL start a few weeks ago in Seattle. Obviously better conditions and home crowd for this one should mean he's a bit better and doesn't throw four, but I'd sure think must-win Detroit gets at least one off an undrafted rookie -- who surely will see a ton of blitzes. The Lions are middle of the pack with 12 INTs.

The Lions come in needing a win to stay alive, and I expect them to move the ball against the Minnesota defense, as they had 30+ points in four straight against Brian Flores' unit before only scoring 24 earlier this year. Getting to the Over will depend on how well Minnesota moves the ball, and the Detroit defense with its secondary injuries has been awful of late, with seven of eight games since the bye getting to 50 points and four up to 60-plus. Max Brosmer didn't look as lost in relief duty last week and even had some rapport with Justin Jefferson, so this is a game where I see both teams getting into the 20s.