Although Johnson hasn’t started a game since 2021, I like him to sling the rock today. In his last two starts in relief, Johnson attempted 41 & 40 passes. After entering the game for Marcus Mariota last week, Johnson had 9 pass attempts in one quarter of action. The Cowboys pass defense has been horrid all season long, so I expect the veteran journeyman Johnson to attack Dallas’ secondary. Commanders head coach Dan Quinn praised Johnson for being a “quick study.” Playing for 14 teams over 10 years has made him a capable backup. With nothing at stake for Washington in this game, Johnson should be playing aggressively and go over this pass attempts total.

The Washington secondary was a weak unit to begin the season and one to target opposing wide receivers' over props. Washington has lost multiple cornerbacks this season and has given up a 73% completion rate for 8.5 yards per target to outside receivers. George Pickens has gone over this longest reception line in 9 of 15 games this season. And he soared over it in the first matchup against Washington (44 yards longest reception). I think he will easily go over this longest reception line again on Thursday.

In the first matchup against Washington earlier in the season, Jake Ferguson scored not one, but two touchdowns. Washington is a great matchup for opposing tight ends, as they give up a whopping 10% touchdown rate to the position. Washington is tied for 2nd for most touchdowns given up to the tight end position this season (10). As I mentioned, Ferguson has two of those. I like this price for Ferguson to find the endzone again on Christmas as a nice little present to us all.

CeeDee Lamb has six or more catches in four straight games, and I bet him to hit that benchmark Thursday against Washington's terrible pass defense. It's a defense AJ Brown just shredded for nine catches, a unit that has allowed the third-highest "open" rate. Since Marshon Lattimore tore his ACL last month, Washington has been super-easy to throw on. In the first meeting, Lamb caught five of eight targets for 110 yards and a touchdown. If he gets eight-plus targets Thursday, he should make at least six grabs.

Josh Johnson moving into the starting role for the Commanders would be a bigger deal against a better defense, but it would not be surprising to see him having a level of success against these Cowboys. Still, over four quarters, Dallas should be able to pour it on and use the extra possessions they will receive to clear a touchdown. This line is up from opening at 5.5 and should rise further, but I would take the Cowboys at any number lower than 10.

The Commanders are expected to start Josh Johnson at QB due to the injury to Marcus Mariota, and the initial odds on Johnson props don't project a lot of confidence. I don't understand why, as he'll be up against a brutal Cowboys defense. If you pair Washington's QBs together in the previous Dallas game where Jayden Daniels suffered an injury, every QB since Jalen Hurts in Week 1 has thrown for 199 yards against Dallas, and everyone since the first Washington-Dallas meeting in Week 7 has thrown for at least 238 yards, including Hurts, Geno Smith and J.J. McCarthy. Washington has plenty of talent at the receiver position to help Johnson sail over this number.

Marcus Mariota (hand/quad) appears unlikely to play, which would give 39-year-old Josh Johnson the start. He went 5 of 9 for 43 yards with one INT and took a sack after relieving Mariota vs. the Eagles. The Cowboys' injury report is not nearly as bleak; they put up 44 points and 6.6 yards per play in the first meeting with Washington. The Commanders rank 32nd in pass efficiency defense, enabling Dak Prescott and Dallas' offense to take out some frustration. Washington just placed guard Sam Cosmi on IR and left tackle Laremy Tunsil (oblique) might sit out too.

Why on earth would Dallas (2-5 away) care about this game on Christmas now having been eliminated from playoff contention (like the Chiefs on Sunday)? Answer: It won't. I'm sitting somewhat injury-prone Dak Prescott the rest of the way if I'm Jerry Jones. I've been to more Super Bowls than he has (at least his team, maybe he went personally to some) in the past 30 years, that's just fact. That's really why I am taking it now just in case the Cowboys start Operation Shutdown early this week. Washington is garbage, but it's the home finale. Half unit simply as I am speculating.