Jack Campbell has the 5th most tackles in the NFL (143), and has 9+ tackles + assists in 7 straight games. Campbell has gone for double-digit tackles in 7/14 games this season, and gets a great matchup against the Steelers. Pittsburgh plays with 2/3 TEs on the field at one of the highest rates in the NFL, as their offense is built around the run game and quick-release passes. Campbell should have a ton of tackle chances against the Steelers, who will be looking to evade Detroit’s pressure and get the ball out. Campbell can get to that 10th tackle to cash this for us.

This moved to -7.5 on me while I was trying to lock in Detroit -7, but I’ll still play it despite getting a worse number. I’m sprinkling Lions Alt Spread -19.5 (+350) as well. Since November 2022, Dan Campbell’s Lions are 15-0 SU after a loss and 14-1 ATS. They are covering in these bounce back games by a wide margin, and get to play indoors at home where their offense can go full throttle. The Steelers defense will be missing DE T.J Watt, LB Nick Herbig, and CB James Pierre. On offense, Pittsburgh’s heavy package formations matchup poorly against a Lions defense that is more beatable in the secondary. I don’t see the Steelers offense keeping pace in this one. Lions by a lot.

Arguably the best bounce-back team in the NFL, the Lions may not be playing up to expectation, but they will nevertheless be the more talented and composed team on the field Sunday. Not only are the Steelers missing multiple key players, they have gotten a bit fat playing against struggling quarterbacks the last two weeks. Detroit is being dinged due to recent losses, but all of those have come against tough defenses. The Lions remain a beastly when playing at home – even after a couple hiccups – and while this is undoubtedly a large spread, it’s still worth playing. Look at Detroit as a tremendous teaser leg, too.

Here's a betting stat that jumps off the page: In their last dozen games after a straight-up defeat, the Lions stand 12-0 SU and 11-1 ATS. This is a muscular spread, but Detroit averages a whopping 33.7 ppg at home and benefits from the absence of Steelers pass rush maestro T.J. Watt. The Lions' D applies pressure, and QB Aaron Rodgers has the poorest completion rate among starters in that scenario. He's also at the bottom for average yards per pass attempt, which suggests that a Steelers rally is unlikely if they fall behind.

FanDuel. Darnell Washington has cleared this line on four of his last six full games. Continuing to pace the Steelers tight ends in snaps and routes, Washington has developed into a reliable target for Aaron Rodgers. I expect the high powered Detroit offense to force the Steelers into a passing gamescript. And with Detroit stingy against backfield in the passing game (Lions are top five in both targets and receptions allowed to running backs), I expect Rogers to utilize his tight ends more on check downs. Plus, the Lions have been gashed the last two weeks by the position, as they’re missing both of their starting safeties. I’d bet this up to over 25.5 yards.

DK Metcalf has caught 10 passes for 203 yards over the past two games, including receptions of 52 and 28. I bet Metcalf to exceed his longest reception prop for the third straight week against a beaten-up Lions secondary that's surrendering a ton of big plays. With the Steelers likely playing from behind, Aaron Rodgers should target Metcalf repeatedly.

Amon-Ra St. Brown leads all receivers in the NFL with 44.8% of the red zone targets. He has 10 red zone touchdowns on these targets. Now, St. Brown has a great matchup against the Steelers' secondary, which has been weak against slot receivers. In a must-win game for the Lions, look for St. Brown to be fed in the red zone again. I like this price for a receiver that has the 2nd most red zone touchdowns.

Aaron Rodgers has a great matchup against the Lions' secondary that has given up the 4th most passing touchdowns (27). The Lions are a pass funnel defense, but we know they are a very aggressive team and offense under Dan Campbell. The Steelers won't be able to be conservative if they want a chance to win. So look for Rodgers to throw for two or more touchdowns on Sunday to stay competitive. And getting plus money for this bet in this matchup feels nice.