The Dolphins have benched Tua Tagovailoa, which caused this line to jump two points. But Mike McDaniel clearly thinks Ewers gives him the better chance to win, and he may be right. Remember, this is the guy that hung with the Bills in the playoffs with Skylar Thompson at QB. This is also a much easier test up against the worst defense in the league, which makes it tough to trust the Bengals laying even this many points against anyone. The Dolphins should get the backdoor cover, and they might not need it if Joe Burrow doesn't show up for this game.

Bengals haven't played a game with temperatures above 50-degrees since Week 8. Last two games have been played in the snow. With their season finished and questions surrounding Joe Burrow, do you think this team will enjoy 80-degree weather in Miami? You bet they will. In my mind, this is anything but a business trip for the Cincinnati Bengals. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have completely turned things around, winning four of their last five games. Players were put on alert with the benching of Tua and I believe that refocuses this team once again. Devon Achane should have a field day rushing the football against the worst run defense in the game. I'm not worried about who plays QB for Miami. I believe they win outright.

Jaylen Waddle is about to get a massive downgrade under center with rookie Quinn Ewers set to take over as the starting QB. Waddle has struggled without Tua throughout his career and while on the surface this may appear like a good matchup, the Bengals have quietly had a stingy pass defense. I think Ewers will struggle throwing down the field, thus limiting Waddles efficiency.

The Bengals defense has been torched by running backs -- allowing ~160 rush yards/game and over 5 yards/carry (third most). They also rank 31st in yards before contact. On top of that, they're giving up the third most receiving yards to running backs (45+). With Quinn Ewers under center, Achane should see decent volume on the ground but especially in check down situations. Even if we don't get a crazy volume of carries, he can still pick up the yardage. He put up 60 rush yards in the loss on Monday with only 12 carries. He had 92 the week before on just 7 carries. He's cashed this line easily with rush yards alone 4 times this season, averaging almost 6 yards a carry.

The Dolphins made the right move in benching Tua Tagovailoa, and they could get a spark from Quinn Ewers. Cincinnati will bounce back offensively after being shut out, but this is too many points for the NFL’s worst defense to lay on the road. Look for De’Von Achane to have a huge day as the hosts cover.

When does a team get shut out and lose by 24 points one Sunday, then lay more than a field goal on the next? When the opponent is all but eliminated from the playoffs while possibly turning to a rookie QB who was a last-round draft pick and has thrown passes in one game. Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel has opened the door to replace Tua Tagovailoa with lightly regarded Quinn Ewers. Miami's Monday night loss to Pittsburgh was not all Tua's fault. The defense turned back the Aaron Rodgers' clock, allowing the Steelers QB to play like the Hall of Famer he will become. This pick relies on Cincinnati to bounce back from an awful game. We're counting on the Bengals' pride to surface.