This is a classic Bears home under spot in frigid Chicago weather. Temperatures will be below 10 degrees in this game, so expect both teams to go with a run-heavy approach. Both offensive lines are vulnerable in pass protection. Myles Garrett could make it a long day at the office for Caleb Williams, while the Browns are missing both starters on the right side of their O-line. The total opened at 40.5 and with 75% of the public bets on the Over, it has dropped 2 points. Tailing the reverse line movement.

FanDuel. Since Week 10 (the game after the Kyle Monangai breakout), the Bears have the third highest neutral gamescript run rate at 53% (per RotoViz). The Bears lead the NFL at 66 offensive plays per game, and the Browns have allowed their opponents 64, 64 and 75 offensive plays in Shedeur Sanders’ three starts. Given the weather and the Browns injuries on the offensive line, I love the Bears to dominate time of possession in this game. Monangai, who has out carried Swift each of the last two games, should be poised to clear this line. Even assuming a 50/50 carry split would get us home, as I have the Bears running backs conservatively projected at 29 rush attempts in total.

The Bears would seem to constitute a step up from recent Browns foes such as the Raiders and Titans, and note how Cleveland fell well short in recent games vs. the likes of the 49ers and Patriots. Worth noting that the Browns lost at home last week to lowly Tennessee and not long ago were victimized by the-then 1-win (now 3-win) Jets at Met Life. Chicago is in a precarious spot in the NFC North, now a half-game back of the Pack in the division but also one loss from potentially dropping out of the NFC wild card field. The Bears had won five straight before the narrow miss at Lambeau, and the Caleb Williams-led offense has enough spark to extend this margin. Play Bears

Let's get the good out of the way for the Browns defense; they have allowed the 14th-lowest explosive run rate, lowest rushing success rate, and had an elite run stuff rate over the last few weeks. That however wasn't the case last week against Tony Pollard and may not be the case Sunday with cluster injuries along the DL. A number of key contributors along that DL remain game time decisions and even if they go the cold does them no favors. Kyle Monangai is a no frills running back; he runs hard and powerful which bodes well for frigid days. The Bears OL can win the trenches and create a path for the guy on paper that's listed as RB2 w/ RB1 traits

Any spread over a touchdown wth Cleveland involved catches the attention. If not for Houston, the Browns' defense wound reign over the league. Mix in some bitterly cold weather with stiff winds, and the scales tilt further toward the visitors. QB Shedeur Sanders played collegiately in wintry Colorado, whereas counterpart Caleb Wllliams is a SoCal kid. The Bears have not laid this many points at home in seven seasons. Seems a tad too much.

This game feels like a cold-weather low-scoring clash where both teams will run, and as much as Kyle Monangai has become a factor for the Bears, Swift is still -- narrowly -- their main RB. And I get that the Browns run defense is better than what they showed last week, but they've definitely been beaten up over the last month-plus. In total this year eleven RBs have had 13-plus carries against them including one in seven straight. Swift's efficiency has been great in each of his last eight except the Steelers game he fumbled it. That's also the only time he didn't have 13 or more carries in his past five. Unless he fumbles or the Browns build a lead, Swift should be solid.

This game utterly terrifies me as a Bears fan because I can see Myles Garrett going all Charles Martin on Caleb Williams -- a la Jim McMahon in 1986 -- and set the franchise back years. I do think it's an ugly slugfest especially with the weather: Forecast for Sunday calls for a high of 10 degrees, with wind chills around -10 and some wind. It's expected to be one of the coldest games in Soldier Field history. I grew up in the Midwest. Playing football in the snow is fun. Playing in bitter cold with no snow is decidedly unfun. 20-17 or something like that works for me, but we might be looking at White Sox 6, Guardians 3.