The New Orleans Saints under Tyler Shough have two of their three wins this season in divisional games. One of the wins came at Carolina when Shough had a couple of huge broken play connections with tight end Juwan Johnson. The 92 yards was a season high for Johnson, but expect the Panthers to be more prepared off a bye week for Shough’s ability to extend play. Grab the under on Johnson.

Johnson is over this receiving yards mark in 4 straight games, and 6 out of the last 7. Since taking over as the Saints starting QB Tyler Shough has looked Johnson’s way frequently, targeting him 28 times in his 5 starts. These teams played a month ago, and Johnson had 4 catches on 4 targets for 92 yards and a TD. Carolina has struggled against opposing TEs, and I expect Johnson to take advantage of them again.

Bryce Young has thrown 30-plus passes just once in the past seven games, as the Panthers seek balance while giving Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard plenty of carries. Carolina plays at the fifth-slowest pace in neutral-game situations. New Orleans plays at the ninth-slowest pace in neutral-game situations, and opponents are averaging just 25.3 pass attempts over the Saints' past three games. While I bet Tet McMillan to catch five-plus passes, I don't expect this to be a huge volume game for Young.

The Panthers have won six out of their last nine games to move to 7-6 on the season and first place in the NFC South. They just beat the Rams, 31-28, and had a week off to prepare for the Saints, who are feeling we're excited about themselves after their 24-20 win over the Buccaneers. The Saints also beat the Panthers on November 9th with Tyler Shough. Activate the revenge mode. The Panthers have also beaten the Packers this year. The Panthers got to put the Saints away early and send a message to themselves. Panthers to cover.

Carolina finds itself in the rare air of a playoff quest in December. Here’s hoping the Panthers spent their bye week prepping for the stretch run and not celebrating their ambush of the L.A. Rams. QB Bryce Young might be sensing some pressure. Here’s the antidote: simply hand off all day to Chuba Hubbard and Rico Dowdle, who have collaborated to lift Carolina to a No. 10 rank for rush offense. The Saints’ run defense? Twenty-seventh. On D, Panthers ace CB Jayce Horn looks good to go after injury worries, which should help keep rookie QB Tyler Slough in check. What keeps us up at night? Carolina’s 11 consecutive losses outright as favorites. The bye offered time for therapy to deal with that head-case issue.

Tet McMillan has caught just three passes over the last two games. But when he faced the Saints in Carolina in Week 10, McMillan caught five of eight targets. That was a game in which Bryce Young threw just 25 times and Carolina ran a paltry 50 plays. New Orleans plays single-high safety at the fourth-highest rate; against that coverage, McMillan owns a 29.5 percent target share since Week 8, per Fantasy Points Data.

The Saints are coming off a surprising win over the Bucs, which means now is the time to fade them. They've lost all but one home game by at least five points, while the Panthers have won three of their last four road games. In Carolina's last four wins, they've turned the ball over a total of one time, and generating turnovers has been a general problem for the Saints defense, which has multiple takeaways in only two games. I expect the Panthers to run the ball much better here than in their first meeting, and their defense should allow them to win this game by at least a field goal.