The Texans only losses since September are against two of the top defenses in the NFL. While the Colts have flexed on that side of the ball, they’re 28th in passing defense, which is where Houston's offense thrives considering it can't run the football. C.J. Stroud returns with all his weapons for what feels like the first time. Houston’s run game is a concern as Indianapolis has the singular player in Jonathan Taylor who can churn clock and break open the game, but Taylor cannot do it all. Daniel Jones’ mobility will be limited, and the Texans should feast if he’s stuck in the pocket. Indianapolis is better offensively at home, but it’s played some of the worst teams. Good with +3, too.

DraftKings. Michael Pittman is under this long reception line in seven of eleven games this season. He’s served as a reliable intermediate target for Daniel Jones with an average depth of target of just 8.4 yards - but only six of his 77 targets have gone for 20+ air yards. Pittman will draw a brutal matchup against the Texans secondary that’s only allowed receivers lined up wide eight catches of at least 20 air yards this season, at the third lowest catch rate (per Fantasy Points Data). And Houston is only allowing 4.8 yards after contact per reception, the 12th lowest mark in the league. I’d bet this down to under 17.5 yards.

Daniel Jones faces a very difficult matchup in a divisional clash versus an elite Texans defense that pairs a ferocious pass rush with an excellent coverage unit. Jones is playing with a fractured fibula and has started to struggle after getting off to an absolutely incredible start to the season where he ranked first in nearly every QB efficiency metric. Jones has come back down to earth the last few weeks and operating at less than 100% in what is a very difficult matchup, this is a very natural spot to fade the former Blue Devil.

The Texans seem to be getting a lot of attention this week and for good reason. The raucous Houston defense just got finished battering Josh Allen and the Bills last Thursday night; moreover, QB CJ Stroud returns to active duty for the first time since getting KO'd by a concussion vs. the Broncos on November 1. The Texans still have two games to make up on Indy in the division (and one game on the Jags) but still get the Colts twice, including here. As for Indy, concerns about QB Daniel Jones making more mistakes in recent weeks and starting to resemble his Giants form. Play Texans

Jonathan Taylor was held to two catches on three targets last week at Kansas City. I expect him to be more involved in the passing game Sunday against Houston's No. 1 defense. Taylor has cleared this prop total in seven of 11 games, and now his quarterback is facing a fierce pass rush while playing with a broken fibula. Look for Daniel Jones to rely on Taylor as an outlet when pressured.

Anderson has recorded a full sack in 6 straight games, and is coming off a monster 2.5 sack game. Colts QB Daniel Jones is playing through a fractured fibula, which could impact his footwork and mobility. Although Jones took no sacks last week against the Chiefs, he was sacked 7 times by the Falcons and 5 by the Steelers in the two games prior. The Texans defense is perhaps the best in the NFL, and Anderson leads their vaunted pass rush. I like bets on both Anderson and Danielle Hunter (+105) to record a sack.

When we hear fractured fibula, we assume the affected player is on injured reserve. Not only is Colts QB Daniel Jones active, but he will start. Presumably, a player who relies on his legs and has endured 16 sacks in the past four games might be limited against the league’s premier defense. Houston has registered more interceptions than touchdown passes yielded (12-10). While the Texans have notched three consecutive Ws with backup Davis Mills behind center, they will welcome back starter C.J. Stroud with open meaty arms. Stroud was lights-out in the three wins prior to his injury, with seven TD throws against one pick. Indy's all-universe RB, Jonathan Taylor, is unlikely to run wild. Houston ranks 13th for rush yards allowed.

The Colts haven't played at home since Oct. 26, when they destroyed Tennessee 38-14. They're a different offense inside, on an artificial surface. This is the one of the only 3.5s left in the market, as money is pouring in on the Colts. Houston's elite defense isn't quite as tough on the road. Lay the points.