The Bucs are a pass-funnel defense and won't have Jamel Dean. Last week in Buffalo, they gave up 317 passing yards. Matthew Stafford is coming off a season-low 130-yard outing and is poised to bounce back in a big way against Todd Bowles' zone-heavy scheme.

The consensus for Sunday night is that Tampa Bay has added weapons and is ready to get back to its winning ways, but this is a Buccaneers team that has lost three of four games and not defeated a healthy, winning team since Oct. 5. The Rams have won five straight and covered four of those; they’re also playing their second consecutive game at home while the Bucs are stuck on the road going cross country. Tampa Bay has allowed 36 points per game across its last two, while Los Angeles boasts one of the NFL’s best defenses. It’s telling that folks are heavy on the visitors, yet the line has not budged.

B365 at -110. Tez Johnson has been a pleasant surprise as the “other” rookie receiver for the Bucs. However, with Chris Godwin back, even in a limited capacity, it does add another high volume target for Baker Mayfield. Johnson is under this line in each of his last three games, with only one see target in that span. The Rams are excellent at keeping everything in front of them as is.

The Los Angeles Rams have won their last five ball games, covering the first four, and they're facing former Rams teammate Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers, who have lost their last two games. They lost a competitive game at Buffalo and to the Patriots, beat the Saints, and then lost at Detroit. Their last four games haven't been their best. The Rams have been so effective this year because Matthew Stafford is playing the best quarterback of his entire career, with 27 touchdowns against just two interceptions in his 10 games this season. Rams to cover.

Tampa Bay's big game credentials need no amplification, the Bucs have played lots of big boys the past two seasons and beaten some along the way. Though falling short at Buffalo last week, Baker Mayfield and the offense still piled up 32 points, and the previous loss to the high-flying Patriots was only 28-23. Note the big effort put in by RB Sean Tucker (106 YR, plus a 28-yard TD reception) in place of Bucky Irving last week in Buffalo. Given all of the turnovers generated last week, the Rams probably should have been ahead more comfortably vs. the Seahawks instead of the 21-19 final margin, that the Seahawks almost flipped with a last-second field goal. A Rams runaway seems unlikely on Sunday. Play Bucs

B365 at -115. We’re back on Kamren Curl to clear his tackles plus assists prop line this week. He’s now over this line in eight of ten, with his misses against ineffective offenses (the Ravens without Lamar Jackson, and the Saints in Tyler Shough’s first start). Curl should find plenty of opportunities against a Bucs offense that’s allowing the thirteenth most safety tackles per game. Four opposing safeties have cleared this line over the last four games against Tampa Bay - I expect Curl to be involved both against the run and pass.

DraftKings. Lavonte David is under this line in five of ten games this season. The long time Bucs linebacker hasn’t been up to snuff this season - his 16.4% missed tackle rate is actually the highest of his 14-year career, and is 19th highest out of 92 qualifying linebackers. He now gets the Rams, who allow the third fewest tackles to opposing linebackers, with only four clearing this line all season. SirVocea Dennis is the better run tackler at the linebacker position, and Matthews Stafford is not one to check down much in the passing game. It’s juicy, but as with most unders, there are multiple outs here - I’d bet this down to -145.

Stafford's passing volume hasn't been staggeringly high lately, but that's in large part due to matchups and game script. Last week's 15 completions was more of a matchup issue as Seattle dared the Rams to run the ball, but this week Stafford has a good setup to pass against a great Tampa rush defense. Add that the Bucs love to bring pressure and Stafford's ability to beat pressure and I think we'll see a lot of passing and efficiency. I think this game will be reasonably competitive as well which should keep the passing game pedal down.

We're going right back to the Adams well, even though the price is a little ridiculous. But the world is finally catching up to Adams res-zone prowess: he still leads the NFL in red-zone targets and he's in the middle of an incredibly positive touchdown regression run, having scored seven touchdowns in his last four games. The Buccaneers likely to bottle up the run, as they are wont to do, which means Matthew Stafford will need to do work against Tampa's secondary. Which means Adams targets, particularly the ones in high-leverage spots and down by the goal line.