Fall back spot for the Jaguars and bounce back spot for the Cardinals at home getting a field goal. Jacoby Brissett has played fluidly and stands as the better quarterback in this game, and Jacksonville has shown time and again that it struggles on the road -- particularly at distance. Marvin Harrison Jr. being out gave legitimate pause, but this is a long trip for the Jags, which struggle throwing and don’t have a rough offensive line to dominate like they did last week. Taking the last +3 on the board while still available but comfortable enough at +2.5 (-110 or better).

The Cards won't have Emari Demercado, so Bam Knight and Michael Carter should handle the vast majority of running back touches. Carter was targeted seven times last week against San Francisco, catching five passes for 22 yards. He's been more efficient as a receiver in previous games, so I like Carter to go Over on receiving yards.

Last week's results are prompting us to take a second look at the Jags after the 35-6 romp past the unsuspecting Chargers. Trevor Lawrence seemed back in control of the offense as J'ville has now scored at a 31 ppg clip across its past three games. We wonder about the Cards going to Jacoby Brissett, a career backup, as the starter at QB (Kyler Murray conveniently onto the IR afterward), and note that as soon as Jonathan Gannon made the announcement, the Big Red have been bounced in back-to-back games, now losing seven of eight overall. We're tempted to trust the Jags here, but as Arizona games are turning sloppy, and suspect this one is more likely to clear 46 in Glendale. Play Jags-Cards Over

Caesar’s. Despite Greg Dortch being thrust into an elevated role, this long reception line reads as too high for the receiver. His average depth of target is 0.7 yards, and even though he did see some deeper throws in garbage time last week, I’m expecting a more muted role against the Jaguars. Jacksonville has defended the slot at a high level, ranking top seven in slot receiving yards allowed per game, yards per route run, yards per target and catch rate (per Fantasy Points Data). In fact, the Jags have only allowed five catches to receivers in the slot for more than 15 yards all season. Dortch, who ran 79% of his routes out of the slot last week, should be kept in check today.

Jacksonville was a favorite play of mine last week and I'll now gladly turn on them here as they go from home underdog winning outright into the role of road favorite. Last week the stock was low on the Jags and high on the Chargers. The roles are now reversed. Stock is low on Arizona and now high on Jacksonville. I make this game a pick 'em, so I'll gladly take the full field goal and bet against Trevor Lawrence on the road as a favorite.

I've talked about this game plenty all week, but I was waiting to play the spread until we had a sense of the injury reports for both teams. Now that it's out, I'm going to take the 3 with Arizona. Will Johnson is trending toward a return to action after being ruled questionable, and Walter Nolen appears as healthy as he's been all year. That gives the Arizona defense a chance to be the impressive unit we saw against the Cowboys a few weeks back. This line saw a massive swing from the lookahead thanks to the Jaguars' dominant win last week, and I see value fading that move, especially with Jacksonville looking as injured as Arizona. Take the 3 while you can.

The Cardinals’ offense has largely thrived with Jacoby Brissett running the huddle. It’s the defense — and the offense that it must impede — that informs this pick. Arizona has yielded 41 and 44 points in its last pair of (non-)efforts. The Jags have rung up 30 (in overtime), 29 (against Houston’s top-ranked D) and 35 in their past three. The Cards’ deck is missing two key contributors — premier WR (Marvin Harrison Jr.) and foremost RB (Emari Demercado). Bottom line: A team that has dropped seven of the last eight SU needs at least a field goal with the spread.

The Cardinals are coming off a game where Jacoby Brissett completed an NFL record 47 passes, and that was without Marvin Harrison Jr., so his absence this week doesn't worry me. There have been seven other QBs to complete 43 passes in a game, and in every case, their team went on to score 23+ points the next week. The Jaguars just shut down a Chargers offense dealing with O-line issues, but they previously gave up four TDs each to offenses run by Davis Mills and Geno Smith. I see Brissett getting at least three TD drives and tacking on a field goal to get this total over the number.

DraftKings. Do I expect Michael Wilson to replicate his 15 catch, 185 yard performance from Week 11? No. Do I see him turning in a third of that production? Yes. Wilson has looked rejuvenated with Jacoby Brissett under center. No Marvin Harrison Jr. again this week, nor Zay Jones. Wilson lined up on the outside of 82% of his routes last week, and I’m expecting similar against Jacksonville. The Jaguars allow the fourth most receiving yards per game to outside targets (128.8 yards), and the fifth most receptions traveling at least 20 air yards. Wilson and Brissett connected on three of four deep passes last week - I expect that to be a big part of the gameplan. I’d bet this up to over 58.5.

Jacoby Brissett just set the record for completions in a game, and he has proven to be an effective passer even without top wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. His play combined with defensive injuries has caused four of his five starts to top 50 points, with the outlier a surprisingly poor Cowboys offensive performance when Arizona's defense was healthier. The Jaguars have scored 29+ in three straight and gave up 29+ in three straight before shutting down a Chargers offense with massive issues at tackle. I don't see why this total isn't up around 50.