Davis Mills faced one of the best defenses in the league last week and had trouble moving the ball. Now, he faces Jacksonville’s defense ranking 27th in passing. The Texans defense will be the best unit on the field this afternoon as they allow a league-best 15.1 points per game. No Brain Thomas Jr. or Travis Hunter for Jacksonville as well.

Jacksonville addressed their inconsistency at WR this trade deadline acquiring disgruntled Las Vegas Raider Jakobi Meyers. However the bigger reason I want to go under on Parker Washington is the absence of Brian Thomas Jr. BTJ has put an underwhelming season together but still draws the top corner match-up every week. Given his absence today that's now on Washington who should find it tough sledding against Houston's pass defense. We'll sell stock at the top of the market here with the Jags new WR1.

This is a fascinating game as the Texans essentially see their season hanging in the balance and are forced to turn to Davis Mills in relief. The one constant for Houston this year has been their elite defense and that should continue today against a remade receiver room for the Jags. Houston's defense has been outstanding at home surrendering 20 points just once to the Bucs and that snuck over on the final drive. Look for defense to dominate here today and we'll fade the Trevor Lawrence explosion

Davis Mills starts at QB for the Texans, and despite not catching any passes last week, I think his presence helps Marks in the passing game. Houston will hopefully gameplan a few high-percentage throws to the running back for Mills, and Marks is the type of player who can get this on one play, as he's had three receptions of 20+ yards this season. The Jaguars are vulnerable to RBs in the pass game as one of only six teams to allow more than 40 receiving yards to the position per game. Since Marks is clearly the top receiving option over Nick Chubb, and since he has 3+ targets in four of the last five games, I like his chances to cash this Over.

Little set the NFL record for the longest field goal made last week, burying a 68-yarder with room to spare. This week, Jacksonville's struggling offense hits the road to take on a vaunted Texans defense. The game total is set at a Week 10-low 37.5 points, so I don't envision a barrage of touchdowns. The Jags are without WRs Brian Thomas Jr & Travis Hunter, along with TE Brenton Strange. When they have a chance to score points, they will take it. Little is in field goal range from the 50-yard line. I expect him to be Jacksonville's best offensive weapon in this ugly matchup between beat up teams.

Maybe best here to paraphrase the now- retired but great, longtime play-by-play of the LA Clippers, Ralph Lawler..."First team to score wins!" That's a signal that we don't expect much scoring in this one at NRG Stadium after the Jags and Texans played to a low-scoring 17-10 decision earlier this season in Jacksonville. Moreover, both defenses are gnarly, especially Houston's, at or near the top of many stat categories. Plus, QB CJ Stroud has been ruled out for Houston due to concussion protocols; backup Davis Mills has some starting experience, but doesn't pose the big-play threat of Stroud, and could get nothing going last week after relieving Stroud vs. the Broncos. Play Jags-Texas Under

I made the Texans a 4-point favorite and when I crunch the numbers, I get 4.5. Now we must adjust for Davis Mills and I believe the adjustment is too much in the market. I believe the Texans are the better team. Mills used to be a starter in this league and should be fine against a poor defense that can't rush the passer or defend in the redzone - and a team that commits more penalties than anyone else in the league. Even better, I like teasing the Texans up to +7.5 and pairing them with our play on the Jets. Texans rebound with a win as a division home dog.

Nico Collins cost the Texans a win in Jacksonville earlier this season with a fourth-quarter fumble. I like him to be featured early and often Sunday in the rematch. Davis Mills knows he can rely on Collins — they connected six times in the final three quarters vs Denver after C.J. Stroud got hurt. Collins has had four straight big games against the Jaguars, who are giving up an 83 percent completion rate on play-action throws. I also bet Collins to go Over his yardage prop, but like this one better due to the plus money.

The Jaguars managed to hold off the Raiders in overtime, but it was a largely unimpressive game for the offense in what should've been a good matchup. Jacksonville had just six points entering the fourth quarter (three on a record-long FG), with only one of their first five drives going longer than 19 yards (and ending in a pick). Even with Jakobi Meyers, I can't see the Jacksonville passing game getting anything against one of the best pass defenses in the league. Only the Bucs and Seahawks have scored 20+ on the Texans this season, and I don't see this Jags offense in that class.