B365 at -145. Jamien Sherwood has cleared this tackle prop line in five of eight games this season. He ranks third in run defense tackles per game in the NFL, and the Browns have the third highest neutral script run rate since quarterback Dillon Gabriel took over. Gabriel also has the third lowest average depth of target (6.4 yards), amongst qualified quarterbacks - Sherwood should be active in pass coverage as well. And I do expect the Browns defense to keep the ball out of the Jets’ offenses hands today.

DraftKings. Mason Taylor has stayed under this line in five of eight games this season. With an average depth of target of 5.7 yards, he should struggle against the Browns fifth ranked tight-end defense (per FTN’s DVOA metric). Cleveland shuts off the middle of the field and runs man coverage at the league’s highest rate. Taylor’s aDOT against man shrinks to 3.0 yards, and he’s only accrued 0.47 yards per route run. Garrett Wilson is back to command targets, and this slog of a game likely stays neutral for the Jets, so they can lean on the run.

This game will ultimately come down to which offense can you trust to make enough plays consistently over the course of four quarters. And just judging off their last performance, the answer has to be Justin Fields and the New York Jets. They have the explosive potential that you just don't see from the other side of the field with the Browns.

Short price...but why are the Browns favored? it can be argued that the Jets have performed better this season despite having just one win, vs. Cleveland's two. Aaron Glenn's side has been within touching distance of wins vs. the Steelers, Bucs, and Broncos, and finally broke through in rousing comeback fashion two weeks ago vs. the Bengals. Off of a bye, and with QB Justin Fields perhaps having regained some confidence in the Cincy win, and RB Breece Hall starting to motor again, the J_Men don't look like pushovers despite their record. Meanwhile, note the Brownies haven't been closer than 14 points in their three road games, and the offense can charitably be called a work in progress behind rookie QB Dillon Gabriel. Play Jets

In recent days, the Jets have remade their defense by trading CB Sauce Gardner and DT Quinnen Williams while demoting Q's brother, LB Quincy Williams. This is about as close as it gets to washing one's hands of the season while in the middle of the schedule. Browns coach Kevin Stefanski this week lateraled play-calling duties to O.C. Tommie Rees, which can only help the stuck-in-the-mud offense -- as does New York's multiple changes on D. The Jets are coming off a bye, which might constitute bad news. They are 1-8 SU in the last nine years, with an average losing margin in double digits.

Both teams are off a bye and neither are very good offensively, so points ought to be precious. Quite simply, Cleveland as a road favorite? Really? Jets players were put on notice when NY "fired" Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams. The remaining members of this team will respond, knowing that nobody's job is safe - combined with the clear message that this team is headed in a new direction and if you are still on this roster, you are a part of the plan going foward. I believe the home dog shows up and is very competitive and could easily win this outright. As noted earlier, this is an excellent teaser piece to pair with the Texans.

Breece Hall gets an absolutely brutal matchup this week against the vaunted Browns run defense, which have been far and away the NFL’s premiere rush defense. Cleveland run defense ranks 1st in DVOA, Run Stop Win Rate, Success Rate, while checking in at 2nd in EPA. Couple that with Hall ceding meaningful touches to Isaiah Davis and this looks like a potentially very tough outing for any RB, especially one as feast or famine as Hall. The Jets are a dumpster fire and just gutted their roster. Breece Hall is an impending free agent and is unlikely to fit into their long term plans.

The Jets have given up plenty of big games to opposing running backs this season, including 167 rushing yards to Chase Brown and Samaje Perine just last week. They just traded away Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner, the former of whom matters a ton in run defense. When Judkins is healthy (and he's off the injury report), the Browns will give him all he can handle in the run game. He's got a 19.5 over/under on carries, so if that number is right he really just needs to average 4.5 per carry (exactly what the Jets bottom 10 run defense gives up on the season) to hit this number, which is significantly higher at other books. Laddering this is definitely in play.

It looks like this is going to be the peak number in this market, so I'm going to hop on it rather than wait longer. Yes, the Jets traded away two big-name players on defense at the deadline, but they have a pair of young players worthy of increased playing time at those positions in Azareye'h Thomas and Jowon Briggs. The Browns defense was not playing well prior to the bye, so there's hope the Jets will be able to move the ball here, and AD Mitchell brings potential of a big play that decides this game. But this is mostly a fade of Dillon Gabriel and an awful Browns offense laying points on the road.

The Jets traded away two defensive superstars at the deadline, but this pick is all about the Browns offense, which has topped 17 points once all year and in a game where they managed just 206 yards. They've been under 250 yards in five of the last six games, and I don't trust Dillon Gabriel to have success on the road against any defense. The Jets also have young players who may rise to the challenge of increased playing time, with Azareye'h Thomas and Jowon Briggs faring well in their limited work so far. I may take the Jets on the spread as well, but we'll see if we can get 3.