It's Jordan Love's birthday today, and he's got a great matchup. Carolina has allowed a 35+ yard pass play in each of their last 4 games. Now they will have to deal with a healthier Packers WR corps, who got back their best deep-threat Christian Watson last week. Love is over this longest completion mark in 4/7 games this season, and he should have free rein to let it fly today as a -12.5 home favorite against an inferior team.

Ever-improving QB Bryce Young returns from injury rehab against a team that is good but not as good as this spot suggests. Green Bay was laying around a touchdown to the Browns, Cowboys, Bengals and Cardinals — and failed to cover in any. Young was once vulnerable to turnovers but might go unscathed, given the Packers’ four takeaways this year, tied for the NFL’s fewest. Flexing an 11th-best defense, Carolina has covered in three-fourths of its 16 latest outings when on the receiving end of points. Prior to last Sunday’s drubbing from Baltimore, the Panthers had taken outright three in a row and four of five. Within reason, they can handle the famous tundra, frozen or not.

Andy Dalton is a solid backup but he's up there in age and we saw him look supremely ineffective vs a Bills defense last weekend. This defense in Green Bay is much better than what he faced last week, and will provide many of the same challenges the Bills did. Expect the result to look the same as well.

This is a massive number to lay on a NFL game, but I expect this game to be THAT lopsided. Bryce Young is back (is he truly 100%, though), and he'll have to deal with a fully healthy and phased in Micah Parsons. Green Bay's offensive is both explosive and efficient. Look for the Packers to roll at Lambeau.

This line looked like it wanted to get to Green Bay -14 before the news Bryce Young would be active for Sunday's game in Green Bay. I'm not sure it entirely matters: Young is two weeks removed from a high-ankle sprain and now he's getting a healthy dose of Micah Parsons behind a banged-up offensive line? Doesn't seem like a great idea! The Panthers rejuvenated run defense fell apart against Buffalo and that's a bad recipe for trying to win at Lambeau Field. The Packers should be able to thrwart the Panthers offense and pound the ball at will in this game.

If the the trend of big favorites winning and covering continues, we are in trouble once again as it has been tough sledding for the past couple of weeks for the dogs. This looks like a classic scheduling spot however, that should favor Carolina. Jordan Love and GBay come off of a tremendous performance on National TV and next week, they face the SuperBowl Champion, Philadelphia Eagles. I made this number 9.5 in favor of the Packers and when I crunch the stats, I come up with 10.5. I'll take 13.5 and bank on the dog barking.

Tucker Kraft has emerged as an elite Tight End for the Packers and while he’s certainly playing great football he is a significant regression candidate. Kraft has only received double digit targets 1x this season and his efficiency metrics simply are not sustainable. 60 yards is Trey McBride territory however McBride is the focal point of his offense, routinely receives double digit targets, meanwhile Green Bay is a run first offense that likes to play very slow with a myriad of weapons. While the Panthers aren’t a difficult matchup, I do question if they can push Green Bay. I’d play this down to 57.5.

This line continues to be on the move and I'm going to go ahead and lock it in. Packers are at home and they're up against either Bryce Young or Andy Dalton behind an injury ravaged offensive line. That same offensive line undertook additional injuries on Sunday against the Bills. The Packers offense looks to be clicking off the bye and is getting healthier at the skill positions. I like the Packers to pull away and I'm not as worried about a back door cover regardless of who plays QB for Carolina.