It's the NFL. Take the stack of points and hold your breath. Analytically, there is not much to hang your hat on, other than Titans QB Cam Ward coming of statistically his finest game in a rough rookie season. Otherwise, underdogs getting more than two TDs often fare well.

Veteran wideout Van Jefferson has averaged 33 routes the past two weeks. With Calvin Ridley sidelined again, and with the Titans likely playing from behind, I like Jefferson to keep producing. He's caught four passes in consecutive games, racking up 116 total yards.

On this glorious day honoring the TE position, I feel obligated to bet on Warren, who has scored in 3-straight games. The Colts are in a smash spot against the Titans here as -14.5 favorites, and Tennessee is now without their two best defensive players in DT Jeffrey Simmons & CB L’Jarius Sneed. You could make the argument for several different Colts to score in this one, so I’ll keep it simple and go with their breakout tight end.

Normally we don't like to lay this many points in the NFL but we'll make an exception here. That's because the Titans simply don't look ready to compete with quality opposition. Even when putting forth a spirited fight for new interim HC Mike McCoy for a while last week vs. he Patriots, Tennessee eventually lost contact (again) in a 31-13 loss. Worse, instead of improving, rookie QB Cam Ward looks to be getting worse as the campaign progresses. Believe it or not, rampaging Indy now is the favorite at the sports books to record the most regular-season wins, mostly because of the sparkling 6-1 record and win margin of a hefty 17 ppg. Note Jonathan Taylor on 11 TDs thru just seven weeks! Play Colts

Cam Ward has thrown 39, 38 and 34 times the past three games. He also threw 38 times in the first meeting with Indy, a 41-20 Colts' win. Mike McCoy took over as interim head coach last week. Despite Tennessee leading or being within one score until midway through the third quarter, McCoy went pass-happy, finishing with an 11.7 percent pass rate over expectation. I would play this at 34.5 as well.

DraftKings. Tyjae Spears has cleared this combined line in each of his last two games. After missing the first part of the season with an injury, Spears has worked his way back into playing more than 40% of the snaps each of the last two games. The Titans will be without Calvin Ridley again, meaning they’ll lean on the backfield even more in the depleted passing game. I’d bet this line up to over 39.5 yards.

It's very likely that Jonathan Taylor has an incredibly productive game against the Titans and that's part of the reason why I think his rush attempt number falls short. The Titans have very little potential to push back and keep this close and I think that means we see JT take a back seat at some point in the second half. JT has only surpassed this mark twice this season and both of those instances were in competitive games. This line is available at Fanduel. I think 19.5 is playable as well, but I much prefer the 20.5.

It's a solid matchup and game script for a relative unknown on the Tennessee Titans. Chimere Dike has started to see some targets over the last few games thanks to some departures on the team and inury issues in the receiver room. While the targets have been limited, the efficiency has been good and now Cam Ward's receivers get a negative game script where passing will be paramount for a majority of the game. It's notable that the Colts secondary remains very banged up. Look for Dike's targets to increase little by little and his production to stay in the 30+ yardage range.

We're betting tight end touchdowns this weekend and we're betting them early because the prices haven't adjusted to National Tight End Day on Sunday. Mild bonus: Tyler Warren is having an absolutely monster season for the Colts, looks llike a future superstar, is a huge red zone threat