Tua Tagovailoa has been throwing picks left and right of late, and he's not feeling well today apparently but will start. So, yeah, my first thought was to play him to throw another. And he may well on the first offensive play for the Fins. But to throw one is really juiced, while this is priced so well that I feel sorta obligated to throw a half unit down. Maybe if he's sick, the Dolphins just pull him if they get down big. And there's always the injury factor with him as well. But at least it's not a road outdoors game, where Tua seems to have most of his issues. Again, this might lose by 1:05 ET.

We don't know how Kirk Cousins is going to look in his first competitive action since losing the starting job last year, but I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt in a matchup where the Falcons should be able to run the ball effectively against an awful Dolphins defense. That also makes me less apprehensive playing this market low number if Drake London has to miss the game. Tua Tagovailoa will be playing through illness, and considering how he's looked when perfectly healthy, there's a chance the Dolphins have some trouble scoring even in a dome environment. I'll back the Falcons at this discounted spread at FanDuel.

Tagovailoa threw for just 100 yards last week and was downright awful against a top-tier Browns defense. Now he’ll face a Falcons defense that leads the league in passing yards allowed per game (141.2). Atlanta’s secondary is legit behind stud CB A.J Terrell Jr. and SS Jesse Bates III. The Tyreek Hill-less Dolphins are a broken team, and are also now down to their TE3. If Atlanta is creating turnovers and this game gets ugly, I wouldn’t be surprised if Mike McDaniel benched Tagovailoa again, this time maybe earlier. Fading Tua, my favorite pastime.

DraftKings. Tyrel Dodson has cleared this line in four of his five full games this season. In his healthy weeks, Dodson slightly out-paced teammate Jordyn Brooks in run play tackling. With the Falcons turning to Kirk Cousins, I do expect Atlanta to lean on their ground game in this one (which is a massive mismatch on paper). Plus, Cousins is more prone to checkdowns and shorter passes. I’d bet this up to -145.

Bijan Robinson has cleared this prop total in five of six games. He has an extremely high target share for a running back, with at least five targets in every game. Kirk Cousins will start for Michael Penix, but that shouldn't affect Robinson's pass-catching role. However, Drake London (hip) was downgraded to questionable Saturday. If he can't play or is limited, that could only boost Robinson's targets. Miami is giving up 8.8 yards per catch to opposing RBs, the eighth-highest mark in the league.

It looks like the Falcons will start Kirk Cousins at QB. What that looks like offensively for the Falcons is a lot of running and play-action, quick passes. But that's often hoping they get hyper-efficient play from Cousins who isn't the most mobile. Not having Penix will throw off the offensive rhythm just a bit; enough for the Phins to keep this one under the number.

The Dolphins organization has given us another week to bet against them and opportunities may continue to be available until they fire Mike McDaniel. I made this number Falcons -9. I believe laying anything under 8 is good. Atlanta has shown to be much better at home this season and I believe they get back on track here against one of the worst teams in football. Miami can't stop the run, they can't stop the pass, they can't get off the field on 3rd Down. Atlanta should cruise to an easy victory - even if Penix doesn't play.

We have a matchup between a lifeless Dolphins squad and an inconsistent Falcons team that can beat the Bills one week then fail to move the ball against a 49ers defense missing its two best players the next. This strikes me as a low total in an indoor environment where the Falcons offense tends to play well. Dolphins games have been dead over since they scored just eight points in Week 1, with the Over hitting in six straight. I can see the Falcons scoring 30+ and the Dolphins doing enough in garbage time to get this one over this total, which is just south of the key number of 45.