Been out on the Bills for weeks now, but this is an interesting spot for Buffalo coming off a much-needed bye on the back of consecutive losses. While the Panthers have amazingly won four of five, that was with Bryce Young under center. Andy Dalton went 1-4 as a starter last season (6.2 yards per attempt in those five games) with 4 TD and 6 INT in the four losses, which came by an average of 22 points. Carolina is better in 2025, but if the running game can be mitigated by stacking the line of scrimmage, Dalton is not going to outduel Allen. The 1 p.m. slate is not great, but this makes for a solid circumstantial play.

Most sportsbooks list this line as a touchdown, so we will spend a little more to secure the hook. The Bills have not covered since their second game and have dropped the last pair outright. These are not your grandma’s Panthers; they have won three in a row SU and get an advantageous micro-matchup. Buffalo has allowed the second-most ground yards per game and must grapple with Carolina’s two-headed RB monster, Chuba Hubbard and Rico Dowdle. On the flip side, the Panthers’ D has doled out just 2.5 yards per carry amid the hot streak. Fill-in Panthers QB Andy Dalton is 4-2 SU against the Bills, albeit while employed by the superior Bengals.

After consecutive unproductive weeks with just 3 catches, there is value on McMillan’s receptions this week. He went up against Jets top-tier CB Sauce Gardner last week and got shut down, but gets a way better matchup here. McMillan has 8+ targets in 5/7 games this season. The Panthers are starting backup QB Andy Dalton, which is probably an upgrade over Bryce Young right now. Carolina are +7.5 underdogs and are likely to be in a trailing game script, which should help get McMillan enough volume for 5+ catches.

Rico Dowdle has been the more productive Panthers' running back this season. Dowdle averages 5.6 yards per carry this season. Chubba Hubbard is back for the Panthers, and it is a split backfield. But Dowdle got more 2nd-half touches last week (13 touches to Hubbard's 6 touches). Now the Panthers' running backs have an excellent matchup against the Bills' defense. The Bills have given up 5.4 yards per carry to enemy backs (highest in the NFL). Dowdle rushed for 79 yards in a split backfield, and I think he'll soar past this line in a great matchup on Sunday.

As much as you like having a veteran as a backup QB, you'd rather have one who still has some good years ahead of him. I don't see Andy Dalton being able to find success on a consistent basis vs this active Bills defense that will be licking their chops vs a not-as-mobile Dalton.

Chuba Hubbard returned to the Carolina rushing attack last week, and even though he managed 13 carries it wasn't enough to shut down Dowdle's momentum. After piling up 389 rush yards the previous two weeks with Hubbard out, Dowdle finished with 79 yards on 17 carries against the Jets and looked like the much more effective runner of the pair. The Bills have allowed the most yards per rush in the league and won't have DaQuan Jones back, so I like Dowdle's chances to get at least 50 rush yards again with Dave Canales more likely to lean on him after Hubbard struggled last week.

The Panthers are not in the same class as the Bills. Buffalo is a top tier team in the NFL and the Panthers are a top tier bad NFL team. But this, despite Buffalo coming off its bye, is a bad spot for the Bills. Mainly because Carolina does the one thing (stop the run) that Buffalo sorely wants to do and Buffalo can't stop the one thing Carolina does well (run the ball). Don't sleep on the Bills taking their break and seeing their home game against the Chiefs in Week 9 glowing like a bright neon sign. Carolina will hang around at home. I'm actually shocked there's an 8 (albeit a juicy one) still hanging around.

The Bills come off a much-needed bye that followed back-to-back losses, and the expectation is that they'll go back to being one the league's elite teams. But I'm not sure how the bye will fix a rush defense that ranks last in yards per play by a wide margin. That's an issue with a good Panthers running game on tap, and the Buffalo offense will have to play up to previous levels to take that attack out of the game. But the Panthers defense has started to solidify, helping Carolina to consistently win the yardage battle in the last three weeks. Andy Dalton is a veteran QB who can protect the ball, let the run game and defense do its thing and keep this close.