This has come way down as the Raiders eye their first home win of 2025; I would play -3 if was offered as the Titans are 4-18 ATS under coach Brian Callahan. I wish the Raiders had Brock Bowers available, but these are the Titans we are talking about. It took a major fluke fumble last week by the Cardinals for the Titans to get their first win of 2025. I trust Pete Carroll to confuse Tennessee rookie QB Cam Ward. As it is, the Titans are the only team in the NFL yet to lead in the fourth quarter this season (technically they didn't do that last week as time had expired when the winning kick went through).

From a coaching and player stand point there is not a team in the NFL that has to answer with an urgent performance Sunday more than the Raiders. They have been torched defensively over the last three weeks giving up an average of 35 points, and Geno Smith has thrown nine interceptions. It’s the right opponent in the Tennessee Titans who are coming off a fortunate win over the Cardinals. Lay the number with the Raiders.

Fanduel is hanging a pretty high number on a pretty bad quarterback. The good news for Geno Smith is that he won't be leaned on a ton as it'll likely be the Ashton Jeanty show in a neutral/positive game script against maybe the worst team in the NFL. That game script likely means that we won't see a ton of volume from Geno (notable that Bowers is likely to sit out this week). Look for both teams to run clock via the run game and try and get to the 4th quarter with a chance to win. You can play this as low as 225.5.

The Titans are allowing over 40 more passing yards per game this season (231) vs last season. This line is more reflective of Geno Smith's struggles as a Raider (208 avg) and not his strong 2024 (>250 average). But even with his overall significantly lower average he still has gone over this line in 3 of 5 games.

The Raiders offense could get nothing done last week with Kolton Miller and Brock Bowers on the shelf. That's likely going to be the case against Sunday, though Bowers still has a shot of suiting up. Even if he plays, the Raiders haven't scored more than 24 points in a game this season and have been held under 10 twice. I don't like their chances of success against a solid Titans defensive front led by Jeffery Simmons. That defense could also be helped by improvements from the Titans offense, which seemed to finally find success late against the Cardinals. That could lead to fewer Raiders possessions and a tougher time hitting this number.

Las Vegas and Tennessee are very similar teams, with the Titans having a more athletic QB. The Raiders' offense is struggling without tight end Brock Bowers, who won't return until at least Week 7. Rookie RB Ashton Jenty is ranked 12th in snap percentage but tends to wear down late in games. The Titans should be able to move the ball against the Raiders' defense, which has a low pressure rate of 32.0% when blitzing and only 21.2% on non-blitz dropbacks. Tennessee gets class relief, having played the third-hardest schedule so far, behind Philadelphia and Baltimore. The total is relatively low, where points are at a premium. Geno Smith is 11–20–2 ATS as a favorite. I like the road dog.

The Titans were fortunate to get their first win last week, and they remain among the worst in the league on both sides of the ball. But that also applies to the Raiders right now, a team with offensive line issues and a QB struggling to protect the ball that has given up 40+ points in two of the last three games. There were flashes of Cam Ward starting to put things together last week as he pushed the ball downfield more, and he now seems capable of a backdoor cover if needed. This boils down to the Raiders being undeserving of laying six points to any team right now.