Though this does feel a bit outsized, the Steelers enter off a well-timed bye on the back of consecutive wins and covers, whereas the Browns have been all over the map while changing quarterbacks and failing in their last two games. One of the safest best in the NFL is Mike Tomlin against rookie quarterbacks, and while Dillon Gabriel was mistake-free in his first start, he only completed 19 of 33 passes and got a ton of help from Quinshon Judkins. Tomlin has every preparation and energy advantage, and Aaron Rodgers has been given two weeks to plan for this defense. Pittsburgh at -6 would be a nice teaser leg alongside the Rams, too.

Proceed with caution when considering alloting a half-dozen points to a team with a nasty defense. Then, in this case, go ahead with it. The Steelers have made the most of their byes, with eight wins in a row coming out of an off week. Cleveland has failed to cover in its last seven roadies. The Browns complete an unusual pair of games, with the first occuring overseas and the second away from home. Their offense has not exceeded 17 points scored in 10 straight games, and Pittsburgh has generated seven turnovers and 11 sacks the past two outings.

Jaylen Warren returns from a knee injury to a backfield that might have changed. Kenneth Gainwell is coming off a monster performance in which he racked up 134 yards from scrimmage. Combined with the difficult matchup, I bet Warren to stay Under this combo line.

I’m grabbing the Steelers at -5.5, now that some 6’s are popping up. This is a brutal travel spot for the Browns, who will be on the road for their third-straight week following their London game last week. The Steelers are well-rested coming off a bye week, and are getting much healthier. The defense will get back pass rusher Alex Highsmith, and DB’s Jalen Ramsey & Joey Porter Jr. Steelers RB1 Jaylen Warren will also return. Browns rookie QB Dillon Gabriel performed well in his NFL debut, but Steelers coach Mike Tomlin has had extended time to game plan for him. Browns coach Kevan Stefanski is 11-21 ATS in divisional games for his career. Play Steelers.

DK Metcalf figures to see a lot of Browns top corner Denzel Ward on Sunday. Normally that might be concerning, but Ward isn't playing well this season. He's posted a 50.7 coverage grade from PFF, with a 27.3 percent missed tackle rate. Metcalf is lethal after the catch and just showed that in his 126-yard outing overseas against the Vikings. Calvin Austin is out, which should only help Metcalf's target share.

Dillon Gabriel makes his second start, and as we know, tight ends are a rookie QB's best friend. Last week, Njoku posted his highest target total of the season with nine, catching six passes for 67 yards and his first touchdown of the year. He nearly had more receptions than any other teammate had targets. This week’s matchup is ideal — the Steelers are surrendering over five catches per game to tight ends, ranking 10th in yards allowed to the position. We saw Viking's T.J. Hockenson have four grabs last week, plus Patriot's Hunter Henry had a dominant 8-catch, 90-yard, 2-touchdown outing earlier in the season. All signs point toward another big week for Njoku.

DraftKings. DraftKings. Running this one back from two weeks ago - Jonnu Smith is now under this line in three of four games this season. Serving mostly as a release valve for Aaron Rodgers, Smith’s average depth of target is 0.8 yards. Only two of Smith’s 16 targets have traveled even ten air yards - Pat Freiermuth typically handles the seam routes for the tight-ends. This should be a brutal spot for Smith, against a Brown’s defense that crowds and swarms at the line of scrimmage. Cleveland runs a safety in the box at the league’s fifth highest rate.

Warren is expected to return to action this week after missing the Dublin game with an injury. In his absence, Kenneth Gainwell looked the best any Pittsburgh back has all year, and his overall numbers on the season dwarf those of Warren, who has yet to rush for 50 yards in a game despite seeing 18 carries against the Patriots. Warren's 3.1 yards per carry could result in more of an even split with Gainwell moving forward, and even if he does see volume, the Browns have allowed just under 3 yards per carry on the season.

Looking at how Browns coach Kevin Stefanski operates his offense, it doesn't bode well vs a defense in Pittsburgh that can apply significant pressure. Offensively, the Steelers provide a much more stable offense, especially at QB than did the Minnesota Vikings. Look for them to dominate their way to cover town.

Dillon Gabriel's debut looked better than many people expected across the pond, but I saw plenty of negatives. Cleveland can't push the ball downfield with Gabriel, and that matters for a team that's going to find itself in plenty of third and medium-to-long situations, with the Browns just 3 of 15 on third downs last week. They simply have to play from ahead and shouldn't provide much backdoor risk if they're not. The Steelers are fresh off a week of rest and should be healthier on the defensive side than they've been in a while. With their O-line largely handling Brian Flores' pass rush in Week 4, this feels like a game where the lookahead of Steelers -6 should've been the rereleased line.