Not going to sit here and tell you not to trust the Colts or Daniel Jones based on resume, but it’s not enough for me to side with them against a Rams squad that is tested, talented and a tough comeback from the Eagles away from being 3-0. This is a difficult road test for an Indianapolis team heading to the West Coast, and the Los Angeles defense should do enough to at least limit Jonathan Taylor. Matthew Stafford is far more legitimate to back in the QB battle, and I don’t see the Rams secondary getting beaten either way. Would prefer not having the hook in this situation, but L.A. would win by a touchdown.

I'm not buying Daniel Jones yet that's for sure. The Colts' opponents have left a little to be desired as well. Indy wideout Alec Pierce, starting guard Matt Goncavles and corner Kenny Moore are all out. Pro Bowl defensive tackle DeForest Buckner is iffy. The Rams are listing three starters as questionable and sounds if they will all play. I might have worried about a letdown here had LA finished that upset in Philly last Sunday, but obviously that didn't happen in an incredible Bad Beat if you had the Rams plus the points. LA is 11-4 in its last 15 regular season games and hasn't lost back-to-back games since starting 1-4 before the bye week last season.

Through 3 games this season, Nacua leads the NFL with 29 receptions and is 2nd in yards with 333. He’s done just about everything except score thus far. I like Nacua to find the end zone today against a Colts defense who is without their slot corner Kenny Moore.

Nacua has been a monster to start the season, catching 8+ receptions in 3/3 games thus far. Lining up in the slot, Nacua is a nightmare against zone-heavy defenses, which Indy profiles as. The Colts will be without pro bowl slot corner Kenny Moore, making life that much harder on their secondary. Nacua has 29 receptions on 35 targets already, and I think he and Matt Stafford bring this Colts defense back to earth. I like Nacua in every way possible today.

QB Daniel Jones is off to the best start in his career, college or pro. This week though the challenge is far greater, as they take on one of the better defense in the NFL. It will be up to Jones to play above the Xs & Os and we'll see if he'll be able to answer the call. I'll trust the Rams offense and defense in this spot at home.

These two haven't been playing dull games and don't expect that to change on Sunday in Inglewood. The Colts and new QB Daniel Jones have been a revelation in their 3-0 start, the offense in such a good groove that Rigiberto Sanchez has only had to punt once in the first three games. Indy is scoring at a 34 ppg clip and has gone "over" handily in its last two. Meanwhile the Rams can certainly give chase or even set the pace with Matthew Stafford at the controls and looking good as ever, though LA might want to do something about its kicking game after Joshua Karty had a pair of FGs blocked in the 4th Q at Philadelphia last week. Play Colts-Rams Over

DraftKings. Kam Curl has come out of the gates on fire in the tackle department. With 26 combined tackles so far, he’s cleared this line in each of the Rams’ three games, while playing 100% of the defensive snaps. With Quentin Lake shifting over to slot corner, it’s Curl who has become the Rams primary run stopping safety. The Colts have allowed 15 tackles to opposing safeties per game, which is the fifth highest mark so far. Curl should have ample opportunity to cash in - I have him projected closer to eight combined tackles.

B365 (20+ at -115). On the heels of Sean McVay talking about getting Blake Corum more touches, the Rams second year back has received… more touches. Corum has five and eight carries the last two weeks, rushing for 44 and 53 yards. He’s been effective as a backup to workhorse Kyren Williams, and I do think he’s earned a consistent 6-7 carries going forward. He gets a solid spot against the Colts, who rank 23rd in DVOA against the run, and third against the pass (per FTN). I project Corum to clear this line with just five carries, but I do have him closer to six, projected at 28 rush yards. I’d bet this up to over 21.5.

Kyren Williams owns this backfield, but he's ceding a few more carries each game to Blake Corum (8 carries last week and 5 in Week 2). I'm expecting Corum to be in the 6-8 carry range, but I think he can hit this yardage over in 4-5 carries. The Colts are allowing 4.6 YPC and in Corum's limited work over the last two weeks, he's averaged 6.6 and 8.8 YPC. Kyren will still get at least 70% of the rushing work, but It's a good setup for increased usage and similar efficiency for Corum.

The Rams were destroyed by Saquon Barkley twice last year, but they got their revenge last week by holding him to 46 yards on 18 carries. They should run the same plan out this week and force Daniel Jones to beat them. Taylor is coming off two big games, and his 102.2 yards per game average makes him tough to fade in any given week, but I see this number as a bit too high with how well the Rams defense is playing.

This line is simply too low considering how well Daniel Jones has played, his bevy of weapons, and this game has the highest projected total on the slate. This game has serious shootout potential and I credit Shane Steichen who has really tailored an offense around Daniel Jones best attribute which is his mobility and ability to use play action and RPO. I’m comfortable playing this line up to 224.5.

The Colts have been the surprise of the season with their 3-0 start, but I'm not ready to fully buy in just yet. Two wins were against teams that were a complete mess (Dolphins, Titans), and the other was a bit fortunate with the Broncos missing a FG to go up five, then committing a penalty on a 60-yard FG miss by Indy to set up the game-winner. This is Indy's toughest test to date and it comes on the road against a Rams defense that was dominant up until the second half against the Eagles. Once this line hit 3 at DraftKings, the value seemed to be on the home team.