Geno Smith looked awful on Monday night, and really days off in between games is why this pick. Short week for the Raiders (second trip to East Coast already) and essentially a mini-bye for the Commanders (lost in Tampa on Thursday in Week 2). Smith-led teams are 1-6 ATS in their past seven. Meanwhile, Marcus Mariota is not that bad of a QB. Washington has the best home ATS record in the league since the start of 2024. Obviously, those are with Jayden Daniels under center but I think Mariota does just enough for a 3-point win or the like.

Jayden Daniels has been ruled out today with Marcus Mariota starting. Washington should have more of a conservative approach to this game, leaning heavily in the run game. The Raiders are only averaging 14.5 points per game and both defenses rank in the top 10 with limiting their opponent’s offensive production. Both teams have also struggled in the red zone to start the season.

We've got Washington and the Raiders, two 1-1 teams, and it's in Washington, D.C., which gives me the edge in my mind, and what made me make the bet. Kliff Kingsbury is the offensive coordinator for Washington, and I think he's going to do wonders with Marcus Mariota, the quarterback for today. Jayden Daniels will miss his first NFL start. The other reason I'm against the Raiders is that they played on Monday night against the Chargers, and they have an early East Coast 10 A.M. start, which I feel gives me an edge by taking Washington. Missing one day, there is one less day of communication by the road team. I’m on Washington with Mariota.

Marcus Mariota filled in for Jayden Daniels for over five quarters last season. Daniels left in the first quarter of the Panthers game with a rib injury and sat out in the second half of the Cowboys game in week 18. In over five quarters, Mariota looked great in the Kliff Kingsbury offense. He had a 77% completion rate, 364 passing yards, four passing touchdowns, and one rushing touchdown. The Raiders' defense is not one to fear, and I believe Mariota's passing line is set too low. He is not your typical backup quarterback, so this feels like a great price to take advantage of and bet the over.

Marcus Mariota is going to start this game for the Commanders, which has caused the spread to drop. I believe he'll do a solid job running the offense against a team that may not be in top form in this spot. The Raiders had to play the late Monday game and now have a cross-country trip to play in the early window, where the Raiders are on a 4-12 ATS run when they're favored or 'dogs of less than 3.5, with two of the covers coming in Week 1 games. Team trends aren't predictive, but I think the bad spot should allow the Commanders to take an early lead while Mariota is running the scripted plays practiced during the week.

Jayden Daniels is out on Sunday with Marcus Mariota taking the wheel. The veteran has plenty of notches on his belt but represents a significant drop-off. The Commanders might like to rely on its ground game, yet the Raiders rank fourth for yards allowed per rush. Green Bay TE Tucker Kraft torched Wash last week, so the peerless Brock Bowers could have a big day. Concerned about a short week following their Monday nighter in Las Vegas? Well, the Raiders have covered a half-dozen times in a row on quick turn-arounds.

It would be wise for the Commanders to not put their franchise QB Jayden Daniels at risk in this game, as he's facing one of the best defensive ends in the league in Maxx Crosby. If Marcus Mariota gets the start against them, that changes everything defensively. Also, I don't expect Raiders QB Geno Smith to post back-to-back terrible games.