This line is all over the place, and there seems to be a lot of sentiment on the Panthers, which made a run late in Week 2 but still lost by five to the Cardinals. The Falcons appear to have established a legitimate pass rush, and with the hosts down two starters up front, they should have no problem getting home. On the other side, Carolina’s rush defense is extremely weak, which should open up plenty of holes or Bijan Robinson and create a run-pass advantage for Atlanta. A.J. Terrell being out definitely hurts, and the spread is in an absolute dead zone, but it's more than possible the Falcons win this by margin.

Tyler Allgeier has received 26 carries through two games, proving he's more central to Atlanta's attack than most backups. Last year at Carolina, Allgeier erupted for 105 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries -- three more than Bijan Robinson received. The Panthers are giving up 5.2 yards per carry and I expect Atlanta to be playing with the lead.

The Falcons head outdoors for the first time this season, but conditions should be ideal for offense. Just four Panthers games didn't get to 44 points last year, and the defense doesn't look much better in 2025. The Falcons should be able to run the ball effectively and give Michael Penix great looks in the passing game. The Panthers are dealing with O-line issues but they benefit from A.J. Terrell's injury, and Bryce Young should be able to move the ball and get points in the second half in a chase scenario. This total is at least a point short.

While I’m not about to argue the Panthers have an elite pass defense, despite holding both Brian Thomas Jr. and Marvin Harrison Jr. in check in consecutive weeks, I certainly think they may be better than we realize coupled with being a massive run funnel. Considering Drake London and Michael Penix have yet to get on the same page, I think this receiving line is inflated. There is a strong chance we see Atlanta go run heavy here, thus limiting the targets for London.

There's an argument that you should always lean into an 0-2 division home dog in desperation mode. Unfortunately, that argument involves backing a terrible Panthers team. I'll be on the Falcons who have looked impressive on both sides of the ball and have an offense, and more particularly a run game, that I don't think the Panthers can stop. The Panthers offense is dreadful as they lack talent at the skill positions and have a relatively bad QB behind an increasingly bad offensive line (new OLine injuries aren't helping things in Carolina). I'd play this up to -6.

The Panthers took some massive hits to their OL Sunday, with Robert Hunt and Austin Corbett both suffering injuries that will see them miss this game (and potentially much longer). Carolina was already struggling to move the ball on offense, they should be a total slog now and Bryce Young could be under fire. I'd worry about garbage time here but the Falcons should be able to name their number from a rushing yards perspective and salt away the game, they won't make the same mistake Arizona did last week letting the Panthers stay alive. This number is already lower in the market.