The Colts might have a different offensive output against this Denver defense. The Broncos week one victory combined for only 32 points while Daniel Jones and Indianapolis scored 33 points on one of the weaker defenses in the AFC. Even though the Colts held the Dolphins to only eight points, this matchup leans towards the defenses with possessions being valuable.

The Colts dominated the Dolphins, who came into this season injured and out of sorts. Miami’s defense will likely end up being bottom-five this season, so I’m not throwing any parades for Daniel Jones. The Broncos offense looked lackluster in their home opener, and HC Sean Payton said he needs to be a better play-caller. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt to figure it out. Denver’s defense is the best unit on the field in this game. Indy’s defense will be missing CBs Charvarious Ward, Jaylon Jones, and DE Laiatu Latu. I expect this to be another ugly game that Denver finds a way to win. I’ll happily fade Daniel Jones against this defense at this ML price tag.

Watching every moment of their Week 1 game, the Colts' win was much more about the Dolphins' failures. There is a massive step up in defensive class here, and the Broncos undoubtedly spent the week focused on getting their offense in sync after it left plenty to be desired. Look for a return to the mean for Indianapolis as Denver puts it all together on the road. (This is the lowest line on the board for the Broncos, but they are worth taking through -2.5.)

Road game for Sean Payton? No prob. The Broncos coach sports a career 58 percent ATS success rate in away games and has won all three with Denver. Indy likely will not shred the Broncos' defense as it did Miami's last week. Denver gave up just 133 yards to Tennessee. The Colts' defense will bemoan the absence of top CB Charvarious Ward along with capable secondary sidekick Jaylon Jones, while pass rusher Laiatu Latu is iffy. That should ease the burden for QB Bo Nix, whose offense did not exactly wow last weekend.

The Broncos have an awesome secondary led by Patrick Surtain, so that should mean a ton of shorter targets again from Daniel Jones to Tyler Warren, who had nine targets, seven catches and 76 yards in the rout of Miami. The rookie was Jones' first read often. Our model has TW at 3.6 for 48 yards in this one. All the books have 4.5 catches but this is the lowest yardage total we have.

This is a bad line courtesy of Kambi/Bet Rivers considering Warren is 43.5 on every other major book. Warren had an ultra impressive debut where I was especially impressed with Tyler Warrens utilization. This certainly qualifies as a difficult matchup against an elite Denver defense, however Warren is the clear engine of a Colts passing attack that looks vastly improved with Daniel Jones under center. Warren posted an electric 29% first read target rate which is a tremendous sign of things to come for the uber talented Tight End. I'm comfortable playing this up to 45.5 but am jumping on a soft line.

The Broncos' offense left a lot to be desired in the team's Week 1 win over the Titans. On the other hand, Denver's defense looks as good as advertised, and is likely a top-5 unit in the NFL. The Colts were surprisingly dominant in their Week 1 win over the Dolphins, but I expect Indy's offense to take a step back against the Broncos defense. Indy's Homefield advantage counts for something, but I am jumping on this number while it remains under -3.

When you look at the Broncos defense, you're looking at one of the better defenses if not best, defense in the league. In this particular game, they provide a different and more difficult challenge at every level of the field and will make things very tough on the Colts passing game as a result.

This line dropped from Broncos -3.5 on the lookahead with the Colts winning big and Denver's offense struggling. That makes this a nice value as this is as low as I think the spread can be. Denver's defense should shine against Daniel Jones, while Indy's defense has a much tougher test with Denver's elite O-line. I expect Bo Nix and Co. look better here than they did against an underrated Tennessee defense, and Broncos should win by at least 3.