DraftKings. Tre’von Moehrig was one of the big off-season signings for the Panthers, aiming to bolster their defense. He lead the team in week 1 with an eleven combined snaps. Lining up mostly in the box, his six combined tackles against the run also lead the Panthers. He’s replacing Xavier Woods, who cleared this line last season in ten of seventeen games. I like Moehrig to rack up the tackles against a Cardinals team that figures to lean on the run. And the safety should also be intimately involved in coverage against the Cardinals top target, Trey McBride.

Arizona should win this game, but they haven’t fared well against the Panthers over the years. Carolina is 7-1 SU and ATS against the Cardinals since January 2015. Kyler Murray is also 13-19 ATS at this number. Arizona didn’t find much success against maybe the worst team in the league, the Saints, last week as they tried to give the game away in the redzone.

We hit on Trey Benson's Over last week and correctly identified the talented second year back would play more than anticipated. Now it's time to pivot to Arizona's RB1 in a dream matchup against a Carolina team he dusted for 117 yards late last season in his final healthy game, which gave him nine games over 65 yards on the year. Carolina's rush defense looks no better this year, and Conner should pile up yards before contact to the point he might top this number on only 8-10 carries. The market expects he'll see around 15 carries, and it's hard to see him falling short of this total if that's the case.

After last week I feel pretty good about saying the Panthers defense isn't particularly solid. But it's their run defense, not their pass defense, that I think competent offenses will exploit. We can debate if Arizona's offense is competent, but I do feel like James Conner and Trey Benson can gain on the ground, limiting what Murray (who will also run) can do. Murray's 17.2% off-target rate from last week is also discouraging. Arizona can win this one without Murray having to throw 35-plus passes, which is what he did in 6 of 9 games last year when he went over this number.

The Panthers cannot stop the run. They've allowed 200+ rushing yards in seven-straight games dating back to last year and they launched a longshot Travis Etienne CPOY award campaign in Week 1. James Conner is going to eat and Trey Benson is going to eat too. The former FSU stud, drafted last year as a third-round pick, flashed explosive-play ability against the Saints last week and somehow draws an easier matchup in Week 2. He's not the starter so I understand why the line isn't higher, but in a game where Arizona is at home and favored by a touchdown, he could see enough carries to grind this out and/or rip a long one off to hit the number.

The reason why you are getting a line this low on a guy who averages nearly 14.5 yards per reception is because oddsmakers typically set receiving lines based on target share and receptions per target. For a stud wideout, Marvin Harrison does not get the target share that Kyler gave DeAndre Hopkins back in the day. But we can capitalize on that because Harrison's yards, TD line are heavily influenced by his relatively modest 17.8% of team receptions, and not his greater than 25% of team receiving yards and over 40% of team receiving TDs marks. He has gone Over this line in 11 of 18 career games and is projected for nearly 65.

If they played the season 1,000 times, I guarantee you this would be Kyler Murray's highest average TD game... and this is what our simulation model does. Carolina's defense was abysmal last season, allowing 35.9 points per game on the road. Their opponents averaged 8.5 yards per pass and that includes six weak division games with only Baker Mayfield really having a good year. Marvin Harrison Jr. has scored a touchdown on a whopping 7.4% of his targets. If Murray keeps building trust with Harrison Jr., who had a touchdown on five catches in Week 1 and targets him 10+ times, then I like Murray's chances of having at least two passing scores.

Carolina allowed 200 rushing yards to Jacksonville in Week 1, extending their streak of defensive struggles. The team has allowed over 200 rushing yards in their past six games since last season. Kyler Murray's rushing production in Week 1 against New Orleans already shows promise - he recorded 38 yards on seven carries despite dealing with an illness. Murray has a strong track record against the Panthers, especially in their latest matchup. In December 2024, he rushed for 63 yards on eight attempts, averaging 7.9 yards per carry at Carolina. I anticipate a huge performance indoors on turf against a weak front seven.

It's hard to lay a big line early in the season on a team that's probably middle tier-ish, but I'm willing to do it early with the Cardinals this week against the Panthers. Carolina has allowed 200 rush yards in seven-straight games, a ridiculous streak over two seasons for an NFL team. The Cardinals run game looked stout with James Conner leading the way and Trey Benson mixing in even more to start his second year (and looking very good). I think the Cards can pound the football against Carolina, get low-volume efficiency from Kyler Murray for the second week in a row, force Bryce Young into throwing 35+ times and come away with an easy double-digit win in their home opener Sunday.

Marvin Harrison Jr. has averaged 0.5 TDs per game in his NFL career and 0.7 at home (5-4 over 0.5). The Cardinals get to play the bad Panthers defense that allowed 26 last week and a whopping 35.1 on the road last season. Kyler Murray is projected for 2 passing touchdowns which jibes with Arizona's nearly 26 odds implied team total. Harrison Jr has accounted for just 18% of team receptions as a pro but a whopping 41% of team receiving TDs. Our Murray to Harrison projection is higher than the odds would imply because we like Arizona to score 30, but even if you discount the projection by 15% you still have well over a 60% chance of scoring in our opinion.