Pete Carroll and Mike Vrabel conducting their first games in charge of their new teams. Yet the well-respected Vrabel appears to be an upgrade by leaps and bounds in Foxborough from the overmatched Jerod Mayo, while Drake Maye’s steady ascent at QB figures to continue unabated for 2024. We more wonder about the many new faces aside from Carroll in Vegas, which also has a new QB (Geno Smith, who played under Carroll at Seattle) and Boise State rookie RB Ashton Jeanty. While these new Raiders connections figure to prove upgrades, the consensus opinion from insiders is that it might take a bit of time. Vrabel, with his QB in place from last season, might figure to hit stride earlier in September. Play Patriots

This was one of my favorite prop bets during the 2024 season. Maye had 421 rushing yards in just 10 full games last season. Apparently, that was barely any designed rushes. Offensive Coordinator Josh McDaniels should be great for Maye's development and likely will add more creative designed runs. As we saw from last year, Maye is not afraid to tuck and scramble either. This line hit six times last season, and I want to take advantage of this line this week before it goes up.

Big improvements are expected this season for both the Patriots and the Raiders, and I expect each of these teams to find success on offense in Week 1. New England’s defense struggled mightily last season, and it will be without it’s best player, CB Christian Gonzalez to open the year. This Raiders offense will surely take a step forward in 2025 under HC Pete Carroll & QB Geno Smith. Patriots sophomore QB Drake Maye should be able to beat a weak Raiders secondary, so I envision these teams trading scores in a close game. 43.5 feels too low, I’ll play the over.

The New England Patriots spent the 38th overall pick on RB TreVeyon Henderson. Henderson offers a three down skill set and has looked explosive and dynamic during the preseason, while offseason reports were glowing about the rookie. Standing in his way is Rhamondre Stevenson who has been extremely average since entering the league. New England also prioritized upgrading their offensive line in the offseason. I expect Henderson to quickly seize lead back duties and big up plenty of chunk plays along the way in what is likely to be a positive gamescript in Week 1.

Jakobi Meyers is coming off a breakout season and will look to carry over that success heading into a Week 1 matchup against the Patriots. The Raiders upgraded their QB and coaching staff adding Pete Carroll and OC Chip Kelly in the offseason. Geno Smith is a borderline top 10 QB as well. I expect Meyers to function as his primary target considering there is very little experienced depth at WR, especially after Amari Cooper announced his retirement. Meyers eclipsed this in 12/15 appearances last year. The Patriots are likely to be without CB Christian Gonzalez which is a boost to Meyers matchup. I’d play this up to 53.5.

All eyes will be on Ashton Jeanty running the ball, but I personally like when reasonably mobile QBs like Geno Smith are on new teams, playing in front of a new fanbase and looking to show new teammates how 'tough' they are. There's no better way to get fans and teammates thinking you are a tough guy than by running with the ball a few times for tough first downs. Our 2.9 projection is actually under what he has done in the past. And remember, if the Raiders are up late in victory formation he could get a kneel down or two and those count as rush attempts.

The model is probably a bit too high on TreVeyon Henderson's touches in Week 1, but his explosiveness in the pre-season (and last season at Ohio State) is pretty jaw dropping. Even if doesn't get double digit carries his ability to break a run for 30 yards is probably amongst the best in the league. Obviously there is no NFL history but we do have his history at Ohio State sharing carries with another NFL highly draft RB.

For a 2 month period from late October to late December, Hunter Henry went over 3.5 in 8 of 9 games. He averaged 4.1 last season. We are projecting him for 4 receptions on Sunday. The Patriots' fanbase is in love with Drake Maye and assume he will be a 'star' in year 2. Last year's 2nd round pick Ja'Lynn Polk did nothing as a rookie and is out for the season. It's not 2000 anymore, so who knows what Stefon Diggs has left these days. The other top receivers are Demario Douglas and Mack Hollins. Even if TE2 Austin Hooper gets targets I think NE could play plenty of two TE sets a la the Ravens.

I expect this prop to be overinflated early in the season before the market adjusts to a new reality: Maye isn't going to run as much as he did last year. Most of his yardage last year was on scrambles, but I expect Josh McDaniels to prioritize staying in the pocket and attacking with Maye's arm. The Raiders were in the top half of the league in preventing rush yardage to QBs last year, and I wouldn't be surprised if Maye stayed under 20 yards in this game.

I'm super excited about the Patriots defensive potential for the 2025 season. Ultimately that'll win them some games. But if I had to look at which offense has an edge here in Week 1, it would be the Raiders thanks in part to QB Geno Smith, TE Brock Bowers and rookie RB Ashton Jeanty. They have more than enough to go on the road and steal a victory.

The Patriots are the team most expected to exceed last year's performance by the market this year, with their win total set at 8.5. I've been bearish on that projection, and I'm going to fade their new-look offensive line in Week 1 against Maxx Crosby and Co. It's going to take some time for the Patriots offense to gel, especially up front, and I have more faith in the Raiders' top skill-position weapons to score points in this game. I'd make this one closer to pick 'em.

The Patriots are widely expected to be one of this season's breakout clubs, with many analysts predicting a winning season and perhaps a playoff berth. While we're not quite as high on New England, we expect the Patriots to be further in their progression when they host the new-look Raiders in Week 1. This is a pivotal game for their season trajectory and we expect the Patriots to cover this light number in coach Mike Vrabel's debut.