There’s a lot working against the Bengals here -- slow starts to seasons, questionable defense, history against the Browns -- which is why the line has fallen 1.5 points from open. This is still a (finally healthy) Joe Burrow vs. (40-year-old) Joe Flacco, and outside of David Njoku, the offensive weapons do not compare. Given the way Cincinnati is talked about at the start of each season, Burrow & Co. will either be motivated to prove doubters wrong, or Zac Taylor simply does not have it as a head coach. It would be much tastier to get the Bengals at -4, and I’d buy that at -120 or better if available.

Zac Taylor's early-season struggles are well-documented as are Joe Burrow's in Cleveland. The moribund Browns are no doubt headed toward another cellar-dwelling season but they might be at their best this week. we like them to find a way to keep this one close.

This number is deflated by the Bengals’ reputation as notoriously slow starters. Over the past six seasons, they own a single SU win in the first two weeks. Here’s guessing Cincy devoted much of camp addressing the habit of stumbling out of the gate. QB Joe Burrow was sharp in practices, and the defense seems to have shored up. The Browns have fared poorly as underdogs recently, dropping six in a row ATS. They will wheel out a 40-year-old QB, Joe Flacco, who apparently won the gig by default.

The Joe Flacco we've seen since leaving Baltimore will just chuck up 50/50 balls and if he keeps the starting job he probably will lead the league in games with multiple TDs and multiple INTs. He played clean in his first 2 games as a starter for Indy but then had games with 1, 1, 3, and 2 INTs. Even in his 'magical' playoff run where he was chucking the ball to Amari Cooper with wild abandon with CLE in 2023 he finished with 1, 1, 3, 2, 1, and 2 INTs including his playoff loss to Houston. We give him a 75%+ chance of throwing at least 1 INT and would price this at -300.

I've been holding out hope to get a better number, but this seems more likely to move the other way. I don't have high hopes for the Bengals defense after what we've seen from the starting unit during preseason, and they should be in danger of getting backdoored as moderate favorites most weeks. That could happen here with Joe Flacco under center as a competent passer capable of moving the ball consistently. Divisional home underdogs are generally great plays in Week 1, and I wouldn't make the Bengals more than 4-point favorites here.

The Browns selected tight end Harold Fannin Jr. from Bowling Green to complement David Njoku and utilize more 12 personnel (2 WR, 1 RB, 2 TE). Cleveland will be able to move the ball with different schemes and formations. This number is super inflated based on the perception that the Bengals' offense will run on all cylinders in Week One and blow out the Browns, who are not as flashy on offense. Cincinnati has won and covered in three straight meetings. Please give me the home team with the better defense getting 5.5 points in a triple-revenge spot. Home divisional underdogs are 18-4 ATS in week 1 since 2012. This line seems unlikely to reach six points, so I recommend betting on Cleveland today.

Njoku is healthy, he has Flacco back as his QB (four TDs in five Flacco starts in 2023), and he's up against a Bengals defense that doesn't look any better than last year, when they gave up the second-most TDs to TEs in the league. The Bengals offense figures to start strong after getting more work in the preseason, and that should force Flacco and Co. to fling the ball around for four quarters and give Njoku a chance to score late if he doesn't secure his anytime TD in the first half. I'd play it all the way down to +150.

While we technically have even more value on Ja'Marr Chase I personally love getting +$$$ on a bet that our model has well over 50% hitting. I also like when the oddsmakers are being lazy. In this case the odds implied 43% range is directly in line with Tee Higgins' career 39% over rate (29-45 over). But 2024 was a different story with Higgins going 7-5 over and MOST IMPORTANTLY, 6-2 down the stretch. The Bengals are going to be in shootouts all season long and it starts in Week 1.