James Conner has the matchup and game script we love. The Cardinals are a big favorite and he has an excellent matchup vs. the Saints' rush defense. The Saints gave up 20 rushing touchdowns last season, tied for 5th most. They were also 30th in yards per carry to enemy backs last year. Even though the line is juiced, I love this Anytime Touchdown pick.

FanDuel. There’s been a ton of talk out of Cardinals camp of keeping 30-year old James Conner as fresh as possible, after a 2024 in which he set a career high with 283 touches. Enter second-year back Trey Benson, whom coaches have talked about getting more consistent touches this season. He should get the opportunity this week against the Saints. Not only should New Orleans struggle with ball control, but they’re also returning the league’s 30th ranked run defense in terms of DVOA (per FTN). Benson averaged 4.6 yards per rush attempt last season, and should be able to clear this line with just six totes. However, I have him in the seven-to-eight carry range on Sunday.

You can get 16.5 at plus money if you shop around but I don't mind laying the juice for one fewer carry. Conner had 17 or more carries in 8 of 13 games he played at least 47% of the snaps in last year, with the majority of those eight games Cardinals wins. Arizona's a favorite against a Saints defense that was the pits last year against the run and didn't do much to improve this year. I'm not worried about Trey Benson taking a ton of work, either. Conner should be a big part of Arizona's offense this week (and every week).

When Shaheed is healthy he's easily the WR2 and at times looks like the WR1 in this offense. That may not look super appealing in a Spencer Rattler led offense, but in a likely negative game script, I suspect he'll get plenty of looks. There's also some buzz that he'll be utilized more in the short area under the Kellen Moore administration. This has plenty of ladder potential.

Really love the idea of banking on Olave after a preseason full of him lining up everywhere in the Saints offense and being a primary target for Spencer Rattler. Olave didn't just have 51-plus yards last year, he had 81-plus yards in 4 of the 6 games he played at least 70% of the snaps in. Arizona's defense is improved, but the secondary still has a lot of questions.

I think the Saints will be a bad team this season, and it all starts with quarterbacks Spencer Rattler and Tyler Shough. And it really doesn't matter who they play in their home opener. That is the main point of this bet. I think the other team is going to do well against the Saints defense, which has a very underwhelming squad. It so happens that betting against the Saints has me on the Cardinals this week. On paper, the Cardinals look like they have the makings to be a quality playoff team. They have the offense set up perfectly for a special season. I had this game being a 31-10 type of score. Cardinals cover.

Kyler Murray is averaging 0.72 INTs per sim which is roughly a 60% chance he throws at least one (our price -150). While he only threw an INT in 8 of 17 games last season (which explains the standard juice on over 0.5), he was much worse in the 2nd half of the season with INTs. He had zero in the first 2 weeks, 3 in the first 10 weeks before cratering with 8 in his final 7 games. The Saints may be the worst team in the league but they don't have the worst defense in the league. The Saints were a respectable 11th in the league with 14 interceptions last season.

This Over is lagging behind at this book compared to the rest of the market, but I expect everyone has it much too low. There are multiple ways to cashing here. Benson has impressed this summer and could be in line for more of an even split than last year, especially if Arizona wants to keep James Conner fresh for a potential playoff push. It's possible Benson averages 8-10 carries a week this season. Even if he's the clear No. 2, this Over could hit on mop-up duty in the second half. I'd play this up to 29.5 but I'm expecting closer to 50 yards for Benson here.

The Saints are rolling with Spencer Rattler as their starting QB for this game, and the former South Carolina standout left a lot to be desired with his play as a rookie in 2024. The Cardinals project to have an explosive offense, and an above average defense. New Orleans is a team that is very much in the Arch Manning race heading into the season, and I expect a comfortable Arizona win in Week 1.