Wind and rain will play a role in this game, and the Jets' passing attack has been underwhelming all season. Rodgers has played well in three straight games, but I think the conditions will force the Jets to lean heavily on their rushing attack.

Jets linebacker Jamien Sherwood made 13 combined tackles in the first meeting, and I like him to get at least eight Sunday in what should be a run-heavy game. Sherwood has cleared this prop number in eight of his last 11 games.

We've seen Josh Allen become a willing and capable runner in the Bills' highest leverage games this season; this isn't one of them. Despite needing a win for the 2 seed I can't see the Bills leaning into Josh's legs by design given how banged up he's been down the stretch. Much like last Sunday against the Patriots as a 14 point favorite, this feels like a survive and advance type situation where Allen is smart about avoiding unnecessary contact.

The Bills have been a target all season for running backs receptions and receiving yards. The Bills give up the most receiving yards to running backs. Breece Hall had most of the workload last week for the Jets backfield and caught five passes for 38 receiving yards. I like Hall to soar past his receiving line on Sunday vs. the Bills.

He's over this in 4 of his last 7 AFC East games and came quite close (71 yards) in another. The Bills don't have a ton to play for here and I'm not sure they are taking a ton of deep shots. Cook in line for 20 touches as long as this game is close - I think it will be - and he had a game over 100 scrimmage yards vs the Jets last year when the defense was better.

This number is simply too low for Breece Hall who hasn't quite lived up to the lofty expectations that were placed on him heading into the season. That being said, Hall has still managed to eclipse this line in six of his last seven outings and 10/14 appearances this season. The Bills run defense has been good, but not great and Buffalo can certainly be beaten on the ground. It's also worth noting that Buffalo's defense has cratered since week 14.

The Bills escaped their matchup against the Patriots with a win after a slow start, and I believe they'll play much better from the start in this one. The Jets have a number of key injuries on both sides of the ball, with OL and the secondary looking like points of concern, while Davante Adams also was listed as a DNP on Wednesday. Aaron Rodgers says he'll play through his knee injury, which I think is a plus for Buffalo covering a game they need to win after Baltimore took care of business on Christmas.

The Chiefs clinched the 1 seed and the Bills have nothing at stake. They were sluggish last week and the Jets have played them tough for years (5-5 ATS last 10), losing by 3 in first meeting. The Bills have won 3 of their division games by just 3 points. Allen is 0-8 ATS in his last 8 games as a favorite of 10 or more, failing to cover by 11, 9.5, 11, 4, 10, 2, 13,5 and .5 points. Allen is 2-5-1 ATS as a favorite of 10+ within the division. Probably an ugly, low scoring game. Bills run D can be suspect and expect a heavy load on the ground. Bills just 4-3 ATS at home. Jets losses within AFCE all 1 score.