Tua Tagovailoa had just one pick over his previous seven games before three last Sunday in Houston -- but the Texans are second in the league in picks. The Niners are lower middle with 11 INTs on the year. Tua generally is significantly better at home and his O-Line is pretty healthy this week where it wasn't against the Texans.

Jaylen Waddle is out but the Fins are otherwise in pretty good injury shape. They have to win to keep their not-great playoff hopes alive. Pro Bowl left tackle Trent Williams is out again for the Niners, who are also on their fourth-string tailback. Brock Purdy is 10-9 career in games without Williams, which is not a good record considering Purdy's overall mark. The Niners are 1-5 ATS on the road this year. Miami is 14-6 the past two seasons against teams entering with a .500 or worse record compared to 1-10 vs winning teams. I'll wait until right before kickoff in hopes of +3 ...

This line has flipped even with former favorite Miami getting WR Tyreek Hill back, according to reports. That's a blessing for the Dolphins, with fellow WR Jaylen Waddle iffy. Meantime, the 49ers are down to seeds and stems at the RB position, with third-stringer Isaac Guerendo the latest to be ruled out. It's a lo-o-o-ng road trip for San Fran, which is barely in the picture of playoff contenders. The Fish have won four of the last six, with decent losses to Green Bay and Houston. They should be the faves.

DraftKings. Jordyn Brooks, the lead off-ball linebacker for the Dolphins, is 13th in the NFL with 121 tackles across 14 games (8.6 per game). He’s cleared this line in 7/L8 games, corresponding with David Long Jr. being waived. An opposing off-ball linebacker has cleared this line in each of the last six games Brock Purdy started. Yes, the 49ers are down their fourth string running back, but I do expect them to continue to run the ball (they currently have the seventh highest rushing play %).

49ers safety Talanoa Hufanga is fully healthy and coming off a full workload 10 days ago versus the Rams. This is a great matchup for safeties, based on the short passing game Miami employs. This number started out at 4.5 but I still like Hufanga Over 5.5 at plus money.

I grabbed the 49ers on the ML when they were plus money underdogs, and they have now flipped to the -2 favorites. Rightfully so. For the first time this season, the 49ers defense will have LB Dre Greenlaw, and Safties Talanoa Hufanga & Malik Mustapha all on the field together. Brock Purdy will face a zone-heavy Miami defense that he can exploit. Miami will be without WR Jaylen Waddle, and have a banged up offensive line. Both the Niners and Dolphins have had extremely disappointing seasons, but I think San Fran still plays motivated and shows that they are a level above this Dolphins team. I’m playing 1U on the ML & 1U on the spread.

Both of these teams are practically eliminated with matching 6-8 records, but I like the Niners to play with more intensity here. Their defense finally has two of its best players back (Hufanga, Greenlaw), and there is an outside chance that elite OL Trent Williams returns. Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle missed consecutive practices with a knee injury, signaling he is likely to sit out for Week 16. San Fran’s top-tier pass defense can fully focus on containing Tyreek Hill, who seems to me like he’s played most of this season injured/limited. Miami has two starting offensive linemen ‘questionable’ to play this game as well. I like Kyle Shanahan to pick up a road win in Miami and give Mike McDaniel the ol’ teacher’s lesson.

The 49ers dont have much of a downfield passing game with Deebo looking slow and Brandon Aiyuk hurt and their first-round pick very much a work in progress. When Brock Purdy takes shots he makes them to Kittle. And no snow in the forecast, so we should be good here. Kittle is over this in 7 of the last 8 games, the only excepting being the snow game in Buffalo where Purdy couldn't function. Kittle's long receptions: 33, 33, 7, 31, 33, 43, 41, 29. I say the trend continues here in Miami.

The 49ers' defense has gotten much better with the return of safety Talanoa Hufanga and linebacker Dre Greenlaw. Now Nick Bosa (limited practice Wednesday) could return along with starting safety Malik Mustapha. They'll shut down a flailing Miami attack that's missing Jaylen Waddle and has gotten declining production from De'Von Achane. San Francisco is technically not eliminated. The 49ers should have beaten the Rams on TNF, dropping two easy interceptions early, but I think they have a good shot to win out and salvage a winning record.