The Commanders are in a free-fall and desperately need a win to keep pace in the NFC playoff race. The Titans are coming off a massive win over the Texans, and Washington is dealing with a handful of injuries, but I still like this spot for the Commanders. Jayden Daniels is too talented to continue playing like he has over the last month, and I expect this to be the spot where he turns things around. I have very little faith in Will Levis on the other side. Commanders by a touchdown at home here.

Tony Pollard has a great matchup on the ground this week against the Commanders. The Commanders give up the most rushing yards to running backs and are tied for the 3rd most touchdowns to running backs (11). Whether Pollard breaks a long one or gets goal-line carry, I like him to score today at this Anytime Touchdown price.

Tony Pollard gets his running mate Tyjae Spears back this week and that could spell accumulation problems. Yes, it's a favorable match-up vs the Commanders but the diminished workload could mean a reduced stat line. With Spears expected to eat into touches it sets up for Pollard to go under his total rushing + receiving number.

Washington has come back to earth after their hot start. In weeks 1-9, Jayden Daniels was #1 in EPA/play in the NFL. Over the last 3 games, Daniels ranks 26th in that category. The Commanders will now face an underrated Titans defense, that ranks #2 in the NFL in yards allowed per game. Tennessee beat the Texans outright last week, proving they still have some fight in them. Washington will be without RB Austin Ekeler, RT Andrew Wiley, and CB Marshon Lattimore will still not be available. Will Levis threw yet another pick-6 last week… and the Titans still managed to cover. 6.5 is too many points.

Calvin Ridley has thrived since DeAndre Hopkins got traded, and this looks like a great matchup for Ridley to get deep. He has a catch of 25-plus yards in five of his last six games. Will Levis loves to attack downfield, and the Commanders rank 21st in EPA allowed on throws of 20-plus yards.

Austin Ekeler is out, hurting the already slumping Commanders' offense. The Titans rank fourth in defensive success rate and just held the Texans to 4.8 yards per play and 5.9 yards per pass. Will Levis is always liable to throw a pick-6, but over the past three games he's thrown five TDs against two INTs. In the past two games, he's attacked downfield, averaging 11.6 and 9.5 yards per attempt.

Will Levis threw one of his signature awful pick-sixes against the Texans last week, and it still wasn't enough to cost Tennessee a road win over the division leader. That speaks to how solid the Titans have played despite racking up losses while playing a lot of good opponents. The Commanders look less dangerous now than they did a month ago, and I expect the offense to struggle against a top-tier rush defense here. I'm also not as concerned about a killer Levis mistake with Washington tallying just four interceptions all year. The Titans could win this game, but either way the spread is too high.

This will be the Commanders’ 13th straight game without two weeks of rest. The Titans are ranked third in net yards per play defense, second in yards per game defense, second in third-down defense, third in net yards per pass defense, and eighth in run defense while playing the sixth toughest schedule. Washington has played the 25th toughest schedule, and they are 1-7-1 SU and 2-7 ATS in Pre-Bye week games against the AFC. My betting model makes Washington a favorite of 3.5 points, so I have to take the +5.5 spread.