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Justice Hill should resume his role as Baltimore’s receiving back Sunday. He’s caught 33 of 39 targets this season. In this matchup, with Philly boasting standout corners, look for Lamar Jackson to use Hill to move the chains.
No DeVonta Smith or Darius Slay for the Eagles, who frankly seem like they are due a bad game almost. Pro Bowl linebacker Roquan Smith is active for Baltimore after missing the last one. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson simply doesn't lose to the NFC at 23-1.
This game will likely be won on the margins as what are arguably the best teams in the AFC and NFC -- with the two best running backs in the league -- go head-to-head. The Eagles have a defensive advantage as they are able to stop the pass, an area in which the Ravens have struggled. Baltimore will probably have more success stopping Saquon Barkley than Philadelphia does Derrick Henry, but Jalen Hurts opening the offense and targeting Barkley in the passing game should help. This is a situation where I want the points with the Eagles, a team equally capable of winning straight up -- particularly given the Ravens have had two tough defensive battles in as many weeks.
The Ravens defense is flawed; I'm not telling you anything you don't already know. However the Ravens still boast an elite run stopping unit poised to make the Eagles one dimensional on Sunday. Saquon Barkley's push to darkhorse MVP should take a bump Sunday and I'm willing to pay the price that Jalen Hurts can't do it on his own. Philly is also banged up on defense and this isn't the kind of match-up where compromised health helps in stopping the Ravens. Lamar Jackson entered 2024, 12-2 SU, 10-4 ATS on short rest in his career (0-2 this year) but the Ravens are scoring nearly 40 PPG...that's enough to get me to the window here
While I like the Ravens to win, I also bet Saquon Barkley to go Over on receiving yards. He's had 40 or more receiving yards in three of the last four games. In four of the past six games, opposing RBs have gashed Baltimore through the air. Baltimore is elite stopping the run, so look for the Eagles to get Barkley involved any way they can.
Lamar Jackson has never lost to an NFC team at home (10-0), as he's 23-1 SU alltime against NFC foes. While the Eagles come in red-hot, they also just lost key pass rusher Brandon Graham (3.5 sacks, forced fumble) to IR and won't have Darius Slay (concussion). They could be without wideout DeVonta Smith, who is questionable with a hamstring injury. Ultimattely, the Ravens are well-equipped to slow down Saquon Barkley while the Eagles have shown more vulnerability to opposing run games.
We’ve got a great game with the Eagles and Ravens and it's too close to call but what I like is the over. The last four meetings between these two clubs have gone over and the Ravens have gone over 10 of 12 games this season. The Eagles have won seven straight. The Ravens have the 24th-ranked defense allowing 355 yards per game. The Eagles have the No. 1 defense allowing 274 yards a game and they'll face the Ravens No. 1 offense that puts up 426 yards a game. Eagles score 26.9 points a game, Ravens score 30 points a game. The temperature will be a cool 40. Over is the play.
My handicap in this game is quite simple- Lamar Jackson is 26-6 ATS when playing as favorite of 3 or less, or as the underdog. Jackson has given first-time opposing head coaches a ton of trouble, going 37-7 SU against them. Nick Sirriani will have his hands full game planning for Jackson for the first time. The Ravens also have one of the better run defenses in the league. If they can limit the damage of Saquon Barkley, they can beat the Eagles.
Saquon Barkley is having one of the best seasons by a RB in NFL history and is the heavy favorite to win OPOY. With that being said, he's facing what I consider the league's best run defense. Baltimore ranks 2nd in both EPA allowed per rush, in addition to success rate. The Ravens are surrendering just 60 yards per game to opposing RBs and for as great as Barkley has been, this is still a big number.
The Ravens have the top rushing D in the NFL. Saying that, I believe they will struggle to tamp down Barkley Sunday. But he is even more of a problem in the pass game. The Ravens struggle defending screens and shallow crossers; Roquan Smith is beat up and Kyle Hamilton is no longer playing around the line of scrimmage. JK Dobbins went over this last week in less than a half of football before he got hurt. Ravens are allowing a staggering 8.67 in yards/completion to RBs, 29th in the NFL. Barkley will be a handful out in space and Eagles will lean into those high-percentage passes on the road vs a tough opponent.
Even with Roquan Smith back for the Ravens, they have massive issues covering RBs out of the backfield on wheel routes and any crossers over the middle. They have YAC issues and Smith and their other LBs have been exposed in coverage since Week 1. Barkley is making everyone miss. Barkley is over this in 4 straight games. With Ravens playing more two-deep lately, it takes Kyle Hamilton 20 yards downfield as a FS. Barkley is going to be a highly-favorable match up in the horizontal passing game.
I have a hard time thinking this number wont be around for long and I should have jumped it sooner. Ravens are 9-5 to the over at home since the start of last season, averaging 51 total points. They have gone over in 7 of the last 8 games (all 7 games are over this number). The Eagles are scoring 35 points a game with AJ Brown available. BAL defense still has much to prove and Eagles D has been awesome during their 7 game win streak but have faced crap offenses. Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson will both put on a show. Even when running the ball, both offenses are remarkably explosive.