Among the double-digit underdogs on the slate, the Titans qualify as the Underdog Nobody Wants, and that is understandable. But Detroit has lost at home to Tampa Bay and had a close call there with the Rams. The Lions are also coming off a taxing nail-biter against the Vikings are in a potential letdown spot.

Block out everything else but this: The team with the NFL's best defense (yards allowed) is receiving the most points of any game this season. Sure, the Lions have shown they can score almost at will, but they haven't confronted a D like this one. Yes, the Titans are 0-4 ATS versus foes with winning records, but those spreads have been smaller. For what it's worth, the Titans have had Detroit's number, with six straight-up wins in a row. The Lions lose WR Jameson Williams, suspended for two games.

Titans linebacker Kenneth Murray will wear the green dot in Detroit. The Titans traded fellow linebacker Ernest Jones to the Seahawks for Jerome Baker, but Baker has been ruled out for Sunday. So Murray should be very busy against a Lions' offense that loves to run the ball and runs the ninth-most plays in the NFL. With Detroit projected to win comfortably, there should be plenty of tackle opportunities for Murray.

Last week at Buffalo the Titans jumped out to a 10-0 lead and everything looked great until Buffalo decide to get back in the game and won 34-10. The Lions have been tortured by the Titans the last four times they met. All victories by the Titans. All covers by the Titans. The Lions know the score and they know they have some history to settle. So far the season the Titans are 1-5 against the spread. Meanwhile the Lions are 5-1 against the spread and have covered their last four in a row. I think we're looking at a 20 point win or more by the Lions.

Back to basics on the kicker props front. Tennessee has given up multiple field goals in 5 of 6 games this season and 20 of 23 dating back to last year. Bates is perfect in field goals, 10 of 10, and I'll predict that he makes three of them in Week 8.

Non-conference games with double-digit home favorites in the first 10 weeks have two interesting trends: the favorite is 12-4 ATS since 2019, and the Under is 21-7 since 2015. I want to focus on the latter, as this already seems like a great candidate for an Under. The Titans defense has played pretty well this year and basically shut down the Bills in the first half last week, while the offense has been awful and just traded a key receiver. Detroit had a huge divisional game last week and has another next week, and with no Jameson Williams, I bet the plan is just to run straight, get in and get out with a workmanlike win rather than do what they did to the Cowboys.

Goff in the best form of career, has just 10 incompletions last 3 weeks and he returns home where he feasts. Goff is over this total in 14 of his last 15 home games, he averages 276/G at home since the start of 2022 and the Titans are damn tough to run on. They have a top secondary too, but this is a tough ask, TEN just traded a stud coverage LB and is selling off talent. D starting to slip and Josh Allen just had his best pass game of the season vs TEN, shredding them for 323. I see a slight tick up in his attempts from the past few weeks vs this opponent and being back at home with a top OL.