Tough call here with Jaire Alexander out, which gives Justin Jefferson a chance. Green Bay’s defense has been dominant this season, and Matt LaFleur’s coaching job on both sides of the ball has been outstanding despite Jordan Love missing time. Sam Darnold has been NFL’s breakout player (among veterans), and I don’t necessarily see him slowing down, but there is now 12 quarters worth of tape of him in a Vikings uniform that should help Jeff Hafley’s preparation. Look for heavy usage of Josh Jacobs (and perhaps some Malik Wills?) to continue Green Bay’s rushing success. The key here will be the Packers getting to Darnold early and often. Everyone (public, sharps) is all over the Vikings; I'l take the Packers in Lambeau Field.

Jordan Love is back for Green Bay, although he's probably not going to be very mobile. I'm certainly not sold on Sam Darnold and the unbeaten Vikings. Darnold is being pressured about 40% of the time, and he's thriving at it for the moment but the guy who sees "ghosts" is still in there somewhere. Minnesota has been great against the run but also hasn't faced a top running back like today in Josh Jacobs. Green Bay leads the NFL in rushing. Defensively, the Packers have generated three takeaways in three straight games and rank first in the NFL with nine total takeaways.

Jones has sped past this total in each of two games he hasn't gotten hurt in; it's fair to point out that he did struggle against the 49ers, but that was a tough run defense. On the year the Packers have allowed 5.0 yards per rush to RBs, mainly through the work of Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor. But I believe Jones deserves to be in that company -- all three have averaged 5.1 yards on the year, all three are over a 5.1 yard average on 1st down runs, Jones actually has the best average against 8-in-the-box (6.6 yards), and Jones has the highest avoided tackle rate of the group. I'd put a sprinkle on Jones getting 80-plus rush yards at +220 too.

He's going to end up doing a reverse Lambeau Leap, right? Like that is kinda baked into this cake right? Not like he isn't familiar with it or doesn't have a nose for the endzone.

I have a hard time thinking this isnt a big Jones revenge game. He can see plenty of the ball on the ground or through the air. Packers run D still has some questions to answer, allowing 4.7/carry and just 17th in rush D EPA since start of last season. Sam Darnold leaning into high-percentage throws. Jones averaging 5.4/carry. He will be fired up for this one and Kevin O'Connell will feed him.

I believe the Vikings will do everything possible to get Aaron Jones into the end zone in the former Packers tailback's return to Lambeau. Jones was surprisingly released last offseason but has been classy about it and only said good things about the team and city. But Jones admits he's planning a Lambeau Leap if he scores. That would be interesting playing on a bitter rival. If he was in Philly, Jones would never reappear from that crowd if he jumped as a member of, say, the rival Cowboys. We'd next see his photo on a milk carton.

The Vikings are back on the road after two huge home wins, but they're 'dogs here with the expectation Jordan Love will return. If he does, he'll likely be playing at less than 100% based on the reported timeline of recovery when he suffered the injury. That may prove unwise against a Vikings defense that ranks among the best in the league in several key metrics, including percentage of drives allowing a score, despite facing two elite offenses. I haven't been as impressed by the Packers defense, which has gotten to face multiple turnover machines at QB, as I'd hoped by this point. Vikings should only be three-point 'dogs to top-tier teams, and Green Bay hasn't earned that yet.

Vikings leaning on their run game on the road in a tough division game makes sense. Jones has been a scrimmage monster since middle of last season and in his return to Lambeau I see him as a tone setter here. He is over this in 2 of 3 games as a Viking. I will be playing some of his scrimmage or receiving markets, too as they populate. GB has been okay vs run this year, but I expect more volume from MIN. If this game stays as close as I expect he could get 20 rushes on his old turf.