Guess I'm going down swinging with the Chiefs. Belief that Kansas City would bounce back has been immensely misplaced for the last month or so, but Sunday presents an interesting scenario for Andy Reid, one of the best motivational coaches in the league. This is the perfect get-right game for the Chiefs against a defense that cannot stop the pass. In fact, it’s the most porous unit Patrick Mahomes has faced in more than two months. Kansas City would normally be a double-digit favorite in this spot against a Cincinnati team will struggle to run the ball against it. It’s now or never for this Chiefs team, and with their backs against the wall, I believe they finally step up.

The Bengals seem to be taking more grief from the oddsmakers after getting burned on a couple of long Mason Rudolph-to-George Pickens TD passes last week than the Chiefs are for the latest in their string of unimpressive efforts. Jake Browning has mostly looked serviceable for Cincy, and let's not forget than in four meetings between these sides the past two seasons, the final margin has been three points. Yes, those were the Bengals with Joe Burrow, but they were better KC teams the past two years, too. The Chiefs' malaise has lasted much of the season, rarely extending a margin, as the offense has hit a roadblock with the wideouts erratic and even Travis Kelce's production having dipped (hmmm...wonder why?). Play Bengals

Justin Watson (29 targets the past five games) is a leader in the Chiefs' wideout room, and I'm expecting him to play a key role in a bounceback performance Sunday. KC faces a Bengals defense that ranks dead last in explosive pass plays allowed. It will be less windy than it was on Christmas at Arrowhead, which should help Patrick Mahomes find receivers downfield.

The Chiefs (9-6) still haven’t clinched a playoff berth and the Bengals (8-7) are one game behind with two games remaining. The Raiders just went to Kansas City and beat the Chiefs who have failed to cover their last four games, The Chiefs have lost four of their last six. Patrick Mahomes is frustrated as I’ve never seen him before in the pros. The Bengals caught the Steelers at a bad time last week to end their three-game win streak, but I think they’re ready to give the Chiefs a hard time. Everyone is giving the Chiefs a hard time lately. I took the points with the Bengals.

Somehow the Steelers did not challenge the Bengals last week with the TE after gutting them with him the first go-round. Chiefs will attack with Kelce early and often and even in his slump he is over this in four of the last five games. Bengals have allowed the most yards to TE in the NFL and 2nd most per attempt (8.5). Bengals have allowed 12 completions to TEs of 20+ yards through 15 games, 3rd-most in the NFL. Kelce can still rumble.

This is the worst team at defending the TE v the best TE. Don’t overthink it. Just grab it before it skyrockets

The Chiefs will finish with their fewest amount of wins in the Patrick Mahomes era thanks to the offense, which has been held under 20 points in six of the team's last 10 games. This is a great get-right spot against a Bengals defense that ranks last in the league in yards per play and yards per pass allowed and is coming off getting torched by Mason Rudolph. Even with Kansas City's offensive struggles, the Chiefs have had one of the top defenses in the league, and the unit plays particularly well at home. They should be able to hold Jake Browning in check, especially if Ja'Marr Chase remains out, and if things click for the Chiefs offense, this game could be a blowout.

Ja'Marr Chase was quoted as saying that "nothing" stands out about KC's secondary. While the Chiefs have been reeling, this was a poorly timed comment and going to provide KC with plenty of ammunition/motivation for this matchup. I would also argue that Chase is way off base considering KC's pass defense is 3rd in EPA allowed per dropback, 2nd in dropback success percentage, in addition to ranking in the top five in nearly every defensive passing metric. I believe KC's defense is the best unit in this game on either side.

The Bengals are the NFL's worst at defending tight ends, so this sets up as a huge bounceback spot for Travis Kelce. He's totaled just 62 yards over his last two games. Following KC's embarrassing performance on Christmas versus the Raiders, I'm expecting Kelce to lead the way Sunday.

The Chiefs offense has been struggling mightily of late, to the point that for the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era, the team is better on the defensive side of the ball, where they rank second in points allowed per game. The Chiefs defense showed up in the loss to the Raiders, and with Ja'Marr Chase seemingly trending toward missing this week, I can't see the Bengals scoring much in Kansas City, where the Chiefs haven't allowed more than 21 points all year while giving up a combined 13 offensive TDs in eight games.

If there was ever a spot to back Travis Kelce, this is it. The Bengals have been completely shredded by opposing TEs all season. We're getting a discount on this line as a result of Kelce struggling recently coupled with the emergence of Rashee Rice. I believe we see Kelce receive double digit targets and the Chiefs should be aggressive in this game, especially if theyre without Isaiah Pacheco. Look for Kelce to be the engine of the passing attack in what is a fantastic matchup on paper.

Even having a poor game last week, against the one defense that has really had his number, the Bengals kept chucking the ball around. And even with the Chiefs struggling to stop the run, I don't think Zac Taylor changes his play calling ways. Browning completing 74% of his passes, averaging over 300/G and I suspect the Bengals have to play a little catch-up at various times in this one. He's hit at least 275 in each of his last four starts since his first stinker against the Steelers. I anticipate another 40-odd attempts and he's averaging over 8 yards/attempt