I've already taken Henry to go over 69.5 combined rushing/receiving yards and over 14.5 carries. It only makes sense to take the over here.

The analysis here is the same as my pick for Henry going over 69.5 rushing yards. I expect the Titans to lean heavily on the future Hall of Famer on Monday night to try and shorten the game and keep Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, etc. off the field.

There's two trains of thought here. The first would be that Tennessee will need to throw the ball to keep up with Miami's high-powered offense. The second would be that the Titans' best approach would be to run the ball and try to shorten the game. I think they'll take the latter and lean heavily on Henry, who has been on a tear the last two weeks. I'm going over here.

Dolphins games clearing 45 points hasn't been a big obstacle this season. Indeed, nine of twelve Miami games to date have cleared 45, and there has been an extra help in recent games with the Dolphins defense scoring TDs in the past two vs. the Jets and Commanders. At home this season, Tua & Co have landed beneath 31 just once (against the slow-paced Raiders), and note the Titans defense has just come off allowing over 300 yards passing to the Colts' Gardner Minshew. Miami might have to do most of the work to push this one beyond 45, but if there is an offense we trust to provide the help, it's the Dolphins' strike force. Play Titans-Dolphins "Over"

While still able to pluck this one before the spread goes any higher, will go ahead and jump in with the Dolphins, who certainly have the capability to extend the margin tonight. Miami is also 7-1 vs. the line as chalk this season, and all hands on deck, with Tua getting plenty of help from the defense in the last two weeks, with the stop unit scoring TDs vs. both the Jets and Commanders. Speaking of that defense, it is quite underrated, not allowing more than 17 points across any of the past five games (the 21 points scored by the Chiefs in Frankfurt last month included a scoop-and-score by the KC defense). This looks 31-10 or thereabout for Miami! Play Dolphins

DHop hasn’t been that great with Will Levis. I think he catches 3,4 or possibly 5 in this contest. I put Hopkins at 77% to catch 4 or less so it will be a sweat but take the under.

I’ve been waiting all day for this to drop below 20 yards. Boom. Let’s jump now. Spears is very quick, will spell Henry and if we get a blowout then he might make this number look foolish.

The Titans should do everything they can to keep this Dolphins offense off the field. Their game plan needs to be slow and on the ground, and that will require more than just Derrick Henry. When Henry was being evaluated for a concussion last week, Spears had a 75-yard performance on 16 carries. I think the Titans are realizing they are more successful offensively when they aren't putting too much on Will Levis's plate. They scored 28 points last week with 44 plays on the ground vs 33 in the air. We are only looking for around 5 carries here to exceed this number. But I think after last week's performance, we could see even more.

Primetime Unders are now 30-13 this season. Both the Titans and Dolphins enter this game on extended rest. When two teams face each other with that added rest, the Under is 28-7 this season. 15+ mph winds and gusts are expected tonight in Miami, which should limit the air yards and cause this total to land Under the key number of 45

A high number but not too high considering the circumstances. The Titans are without Jeffrey Simmons here, and already allow a ton of yards per reception on the road (8.5 YPA for 258 yards). Tennessee sacks nearly 40% less on the road going up a against a Dolphins O-Line that is allowing under 1 sack at home. Look for Tua to have plenty of time in the pocket to connect with his favorite receiver on the journey to 2,000 yards.

Dolphins linebacker David Long spent his first four seasons with Tennessee, and he didn't like when Titans coach Mike Vrabel called him a "repeat offender" after being unable to suit up due to a recurring soft-tissue injury. Long has had this game circled for months. He's been Miami's best run defender this season and will be critical to slowing down Derrick Henry. Look for Long to make at least seven combined tackles and exceed this prop total for the eighth time in 13 tries.

De'Von Achane averages a ridiculous 9.5 yards per carry and, based on his 105 yards from scrimmage last week, looks to be over the knee injury that sent him to IR. He played 37 snaps to Raheem Mostert's 23 in the blowout of Washington, getting 20 touches to Mostert's 12. Both players were on the injury report this week, but it was Achane (ribs) practicing fully throughout while Mostert (knee) missed Thursday's practice before getting in limited sessions Friday and Saturday. Tennessee defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons (knee) is out, and fellow defensive tackle Teair Tart (personal) is questionable. Tart is the Titans' most important run-stopper.

This guy gets chunk yards a bunch of different ways and I don't want to get caught between the run or the receiving prop, so I'll pay the scrimmage. Can do so much out on space no matter how gets the ball and doesn't need a ton of touches to put up big yards. His scrimmage yards in the 4 full games he's played: 103, 165, 120, 233. Even with Mostert healthy too, this feels like a light total to me. Another blowout and he probably still keeps getting fed like last week at Washington. Fins offense so much more fined tuned at home. Have to ride him here.

So this kid has 9 TDs in the four full games he's played and he was used a lot in a blowout last week to get his legs back under him after another injury. And Mostert is great and all, but this kid has a different gear and is a different type of home run hitter. Averaging 9.5/carry, he can score from anywhere even against a stout run D like the Titans.

Titans are terrible on the road and have allowed the 9th most passing yards on the road this season. The secondary has all kinds of issues and the Dolphins are a match-up nightmare. Tua averages 306 YPG at home, completing 73% of his asses for over 9 yards per attempt. I don't see any of that slowing down here. Maybe he doesn't hit the TD prop, as Titans are stingy against passing TDs, but even in a blowout I think he's going over 300 here.

Being potentially without RB Derrick Henry is a big blow to a Titans offense that has been mediocre to say the least. Miami is playing outstanding ball on the offensive side and should be able to take advantage of a Titans secondary at home.

The Dolphins are typically a much better team at home, but they're coming off back-to-back dominant road wins against bad teams. They'll face another bad team here at the start of a three-game homestand, and one with a poor pass defense that like last week seems tailor made to giving up 40-plus points to the Dolphins. Where the Titans have success is in the red zone, where they rank second in success rate, but the Dolphins offense is first in the red zone by a wide margin, nullifying that rare Tennessee strength. And the Titans defense will be without star lineman Jeffery Simmons. This feels like a 38-17 type of game.

This opened at 12 Sunday and I urged you to grab it in my column on SportsLine. It's already at 13 and if the Titans end up having injury woes (Jeffrey Simmons), forget about it. I see this getting over 2 TDs by midweek and I want it under 14. Fins can strut their stuff at home in prime time and build Tua's MVP case against a team that is horrible on the road. Miami has run game healthy and tuned up and too much explosion and balance on offense (TEN is 22nd in plays 20+ allowed). Miami win margin at home: 50, 15, 21, 14, 7. Half of TEN's 6 road losses have been by 14 or more.