The veteran dual-threat RB has clipped this number 5 times this season. He stands to see plenty of opportunities in the passing game again Sunday amid a banged-up offensive unit with TE Taysom Hill and WR Rashid Shaheed out, and WR Chris Olave battling through an illness.

Panthers' opponents run the ball at the second-highest rate (48.9 percent), which sets up well for Carolina linebacker Frankie Luvu. He has just nine combined tackles the past two weeks, but cleared this prop total in the previous five games. Also, he got nine tackles and two sacks in the Week 2 loss to New Orleans, and I like him to register at least eight combined tackles Sunday. The Saints rank Top-10 in time of possession and are likely to win the TOP battle again with Derek Carr cleared to play.

Hubbard is coming off a career-best game where he handled 74% of the team's carries, and he appears to be the new coaching staff's preferred option in the backfield. Hubbard has quietly had a good season, and despite playing in one of the league's least-effective offenses, he has delivered solid efficiency. Hubbard and Co. will face a middle-of-the-road Saints run defense that has been a fairly significant run funnel. Carolina wants to limit Bryce Young's drop-backs and should lean on Hubbard in what should be a low-scoring/competitive game environment.

this game is intriguing from a New Orleans quarterback perspective. The Saints are doing one of two things: 1) trotting out Derek Carr who is coming out of concussion protocol and dealing with a shoulder injury or 2) rolling out Jameis Winston. Jameis would be my preference for entertainment purposes, but for the Panthers keeping this within a field goal I'm not sure either one matters. The total here is 37.5, so no one is expecting a ton of points. If Carr is playing, the Saints are going to be a turtle on offense and he's going to be a Checkdown Charlie. If Jameis starts, there's insane upside for a Panthers defensive touchdown or a turnover to set up some points.

The Panthers averaged over 5 yards per carry against the Saints in their first meeting and the Saints run D has only suffered since then. Hubbard is in good form and even in that first meeting, when he wasn't getting the ball on the ground, he caught 5 passes for 34 yards. I see him carrying the ball 16 times or more and probably rolling up over 60 yards on the ground alone. Even if something is off there, the screen problems for the Saints LBs are very real and with a rookie QB who has been very shaky, I have to think checkdowns are plentiful on the road in a dome.

Maybe a Saints offense that has been less-than-tepid for most of the season explodes with Jameis Winston at QB and this becomes a total bloodbath, and Hubbard doesn't get carries. Otherwise - and even despite that - I see him getting on average over 4 carries per quarter. Bryce Young is terrible on the road and this is a loud dome and the Saints stink against the run (5.0/carry allowed since Week 7). Hubbard has 39 carries the last two weeks alone and 49 in the last three; Sanders has 34 rushes in that span. Sanders was the lead back when these teams first played, and he got 14 carries in that one. Teams are running with volume on the Saints.

Hubbard gets a ton of the ball for the Panthers and they don't have many others who would poach TD runs from him. He has 3 TDs in the last two games and the Saints run D stinks and the pass D is still stout. Bryce Young has just 5 TDs passes in 6 road games, and a lot of RZ mistakes. So I see runs there . Saints have allowed 8 rushing TDs since Week 7 (31st) while allowing 5.0 YPC in that span, dead last. Even if it ends up being in garbage time we'll gladly take it. I can't imagine he doesn't see a lot of the football here.

With the NFC South title still up for grabs, the Saints need to put together its best effort of the season in a division game. We saw the Panthers show some fight in their first game since the firing of coach Frank Reich. I can see this one yielding more points than expected.

The Saints are 0-5 ATS at home (2-3 SU) and likely will start Jameis Winston against a very solid Panthers' defense. Carolina was very competitive in losing 21-18 at Tampa Bay under interim coach Chris Tabor, as Chuba Hubbard thrived as the lead back (25 carries, 104 yards, 2 TDs). Over its last three games, New Orleans has allowed 6.1 yards per play, which ranks 29th. The Panthers have allowed 5.0 yards per play in that span. Carolina plays low-scoring games and this should be another, which makes grabbing the points extremely valuable.

The Panthers gutted out a cover last week, and the Saints almost did the same, but I thought the Carolina defense did a good job outside of Mike Evans' long TD, allowing 4.3 yards per play outside of that. And that was with Brian Burns getting ejected and Jaycee Horn on a pitch count. They should have success against a beat-up Saints offense starting a backup QB that has always been defined by volatility, and any key turnover here will make it tough for the Saints to cover a big number. Their defense is also 27th in yards per rush, and that's the area Carolina's offense actually had some success in a tough matchup last week. I can see another close Panthers game here.