It’s been tough to trust the Falcons all season, but unless the Jets are going to score twice on defense, I don’t see how Tim Boyle is going to put up points. New York’s defense is one of the best in the league, but it gets exhausted from being on the field constantly. Atlanta is a beatable team in most games, but it has shown an ability to put up points, even against tough defenses. The increased work for Bijan Robinson has been a light at the end of the tunnel for the Falcons, and I like them to eventually prevail by a field goal.

This is an extremely chalky play but it should be a safe one. Last week the TE had 4 catches on 5 targets as a safety valve near the line of scrimmage for Tim Boyle, and he should have that role again Sunday against the Falcons.

The Falcons defense has been steady all throughout the season, showing a propensity to take the ball away. They play offense in a manner that the Jets want to play but can't due to their QB play. Jets defense will give them a chance, but having a competent QB will be the difference for Atlanta.

Although we've seen marginal third-string QBs go from miserable debuts to serviceable second starts (such as Tommy DeVito of NYG), it's tough to envision Jets journeyman Tim Boyle seeing a huge performance gain. The Falcons just ended a three-game losing streak with all losses by 5 points or fewer with a solid win over New Orleans last week, A similar performance should net their second road victory of the season.

The Jets offense is hard to watch and even harder with Tim Boyle, the QB who threw the first ever "Hail Mary Pick Six". The only way New York can score is from its defense and/or special teams. On the other hand, the Falcons offense can be good, but you never know which Falcons team will show up on a given week. Both teams have serviceable defenses. This one will be as ugly as you'd expect, take the under in what is sure to be a defensive battle at MetLife Stadium.

The total in this game is ridiculously low, which made me considering the Jets when the line was +3 earlier in the week. It's tough to take the Falcons to win by margin, but they should win this game against an offense that can't move the ball. The Jets managed just 2.9 yards per play at home against the Dolphins last week, and now they face a Falcons defense that's 11th in yards per play, sixth on third down and third in the red zone, where the Jets can't make it to anyway. I worry about Desmond Ridder on the road against a good defense, but I don't know why the Falcons would put him at risk. Expect a heavy rushing gameplan and a win.

The return here isn't stellar. Not gonna lie. But I see potential for a parlay riding the under and a lot of ATL rushing props and this kicking prop and the Jets side as well if you like. Koo is as good as it gets, forecast looks good for kicking, Ridder is a bad RZ QB and Jets RZ D is stout. NYJ terrible offense will lead Arthur Smith to take the automatic 3 on the road. Jets have had the most FGA vs them in the NFL. That's not a fluke. I could see him making 3+

Another Falcons trend we saw coming out of their bye. Ridder has limitations passing the ball, and is especially poor on the road, but has gradually tapped more into his athleticism. Watching Heinicke run around in this offense was going to lead for more of that for him, too (oh yeah and the dreadful INTs). He crushed his number in the first half last week (13.5) and I worried it would open 18.5. Love it here. He is 18+ in four of five games and with the season on the line it will be made clear to him to take off and run or chuck it into the stands if his first 2 looks aren't there. Has a run of 13+ in 4 of 5.

Any Falcons playoff run will hinge on their first-round pick leading the way on offense. They have a stout enough line to key the run game as the engine and Bijan is a dynamo catching balls as well. Not uncommon at all for him to get 5-6 targets and that's my expectation against this Jets D in particular. I don't see them trying to push the ball down the field. He is over 100 scrimmage yards in each of the last two games and it's hard to concoct winning scripts for ATL that don't include that kind of day for him. I honestly think he hits 80+ on the ground alone. I will play this 100+ in alt markets.

You think Arthur Smith wants to see Sauce take a pick six back 95 yards against his old college QB? Me neither. How is Bijan not fed like crazy inside the RZ? His lack of scoring/touches early in the season keeps this return high, but get it before that changes. Was +125 last Thurs. Bijan scores outside the RZ in the passing game and has a rushing TD in two straight (at least 1 TD in 3 of 4). A dome team with an already benched defense outdoors in Dec vs this D? Even Arthur Smith can't mess this up (don't mess this up).

The Jets' run defense has been showing leaks lately and is down to 18th for the season, allowing 4.2 yards per attempt. That sets up well for electric rookie Bijan Robinson (5.0 ypc) and a Falcons team that runs the ball at the third-highest rate. In Tim Boyle's first start, the Jets either punted or turned the ball over on every drive until their second-to-last possession of the game. I'm not expecting a major step forward, especially with Breece Hall dealing with a hamstring injury.

Maybe Arthur Smith was holding his over-drafted RB back for the playoff run early in the season. Whatever it was, we saw the uptick in use coming and keep riding it here. Jets allow 183 rush yards/game Dedmond Ridder is a bad QB with turnover tendencies (even in the RZ) who is even worse on the road. He ain't the future and no sense trying to prop him up. Jets D is fraying and were just on field for 36 mins last week. ATL's 3-back attack will break them. My guess is Bijan won't be at 13.5 carries this week but I like it even at 16.5. Smith has to ride him here with his job on the line to win the crappy NFC South.

The Falcons offense faces a tough test on the road, and they should look to protect Desmond Ridder as much as possible by leaning on the run game. The Jets are much easier to run on than pass on anyway, and they just gave up five yards per carry to Miami's backs. Even with Bijan Robinson averaging 19 carries in his last two games, Allgeier has totaled 19 carries of his own, and I expect him in double-digits this week. Ten carries at his season average gets him over this total, and the Jets defense allows even more yards per carry than he averages.