Washington arrives in Foxborough with a bit of a chip on its shoulder now that everyone has fully written them off after the trades of Chase Young and Montez Sweat. The good news for them is they meet up with a Patriots team that has just as many holes on defense. With recent improved play from Sam Howell I see Washington moving the ball efficiently via the passing game. This game should be close as the point spread indicates, but Washington is certainly a live dog here and I'll take the points.

It's telling that you have to lay a thicker price in order to take the points in this one. Bettors seem plenty willing to lay points on the NFL's second-worst scoring team in New England (14.5 ppg). Although some are alarmed at Washington's mini fire sale of defensive ends this week, the Commanders have hte value in this spread.

Kendrick Bourne is out and DeVante Parker (concussion) has not returned to practice. So Demario Douglas is the next man up in this uninspiring receiving corps. He drew seven targets last week and now faces a terrible Washington pass defense. Look for the rookie out of Liberty to pick up at least 42 receiving yards.

Dotson had a brutal start to his sophomore season after a promising rookie campaign. Dotson was a popular breakout candidate in a new-look offense with talented young QB Sam Howell at the helm and highly decorated coordinator Eric Bieniemy running things. That was not the case through the first six games of the season. Dotson had 140 receiving yards through six games, despite the Commanders being one of the highest-volume passing offenses in the league.
The young receiver has come to life. He has eclipsed his previous production over the past two games with 13 receptions for 151 yards. The Commanders have gone out of their way to get Dotson involved, and look for him to keep excelling in a surprisingly high-powered passing attack.

The Commanders just traded away two key pieces on defense, but it's not like the unit has been stopping most teams already. Still, that increases the chances there will be more scoring in this game by the Patriots, but it's the Washington team total I like taking Over at this number. Sam Howell did a much better job avoiding sacks against Philadelphia, and this offense has a lot of upside moving forward even as they've scored 20-plus in 6 of 8 games already. The Patriots have allowed 20 in 7 of 8 and at least 24 to everyone but the Raiders and Jets. Washington feels like a step up from those units at this point.

The Commanders have given up the second-most points and fourth-most yards in the NFL, and they just traded their best pass rusher (Chase Young) and highest-graded run stopper (Montez Sweat). Mac Jones is down some receiving weapons, but he should still have success against this hapless defense throwing to Demario Douglas, Hunter Henry and Rhamondre Stevenson. Look for linebacker Josh Uche to return from his ankle/toe injuries this week and make a big impact versus Sam Howell. With New England's well-documented offensive limitations, I would not play this higher than -3.

Moving day in D.C.! The Commanders unloaded two D-ends just prior to the trade deadline -- one of whom, Chase Young, ranks among the league's finest pass rushers. Montez Sweat, who had outpaced Young to become the team leader this season, also was shown the door. A few weeks ago, their absence might not have made much difference, but the Patriots' offense have shown a pulse -- and more -- recently. QB Mac Jones' protection has improved, so he should have all the time necessary in the pocket against Washington sans Sweat and Young.

Will throw a half unit down here simply as Washington got a lot worse defensively today in trading away Montez Sweat (Bears) and Chase Young (Niners) and their 11.5 combined sacks. Maybe we push (or lose) but I don't have enough faith in Mac Jones or the Pats to play my normal moneyline wager. Some books already have pushed this to -3.5.

Sam Howell is coming off his best game, which includes getting sacked only once against an excellent Eagles defensive front. He'll face a Patriots defense that has not been great since early in the season as it deals with several key injuries. The Commanders pass defense has been horrendous, but I'm not sure the Patriots can take advantage after reverting to form in Miami, especially with Kendrick Bourne now out. This could be first to 20 wins, and I'm more confident in Washington's offense right now.