Josh Reynolds has continued to be consistent in eclipsing his yardage prop total. While his catches per game are declining he continues to show big play ability. He’s averaged 18.6 yards in his last five catches. With his prop dropping three yards it’s enough for me to jump in on his over.

Raiders star defensive end Maxx Crosby is always amped up, but Monday Night Football will be even more meaningful for him because it's a homecoming of sorts. He played nearby at Eastern Michigan and just donated $1 million to his school's athletic department, which is renaming the football field in Crosby's honor. Crosby excels against both the pass and run and has gone Over this tackle prop in six of seven games.

We are looking at a negative game script and a concentration of targets that is centered among Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers and Josh Jacobs. It's a good recipe for both receivers to get a ton of attention from Jimmy Garoppolo. I'm expecting an inefficient running game from the Raiders while they chase points through the air. This is a Detroit secondary that is still missing some pieces which certainly helps the case for Meyers.

No. 1 WR Amon-Ra St. Brown has just been cleared to play for Detroit. Jared Goff has a 5-1 record in his last 6 home games (72.7% completions, 15-2 TD-INT ratio). The Raiders are the only team in the NFL yet to score more than 21 points, and if they don't tonight we should at worst push. LV also might be without Pro Bowl kicker Daniel Carlson.

Josh Reynolds is firmly entrenched as the WR2 on the Lions offense. Reynolds has eclipsed this line in 6/7 games and will face a Raiders secondary that has really struggled this season. Look for Reynolds and Jared Goff to hook up for a couple big plays this evening.

It's a somewhat rare primetime game for me, but I like this spot for points, and my simulation predicts a total of 47.5 in this matchup. The Lions' injury concerns will likely lead them to pass more than run, as long as the game remains within two scores. Vegas isn't as bad as their record suggests, especially with Jimmy Garoppolo back under center. Vegas should do enough to contribute to another high-scoring Lions game.

In the interesting stats category this season, how about the Raiders offense never scoring more than 19 points thru seven weeks (Vegas reached 21 against the Patriots thanks to a late Maxx Crosby safety)? Wasn't Josh McDaniels supposed to be some sort of offensive guru? (Not so much, maybe, without Tom Brady as his QB...which folks in Denver could have told Mark Davis from McDaniels' aborted tenure as Broncos HC many years ago). Jimmy G reportedly back in action tonight but not sure how much of a plus that might be, and remember the Lions had won four straight by 14 or more before the loss at Baltimore.

This is as clear a bounce-back spot as a team can have playing at home in primetime against an opponent that just lost to the Bears a week ago. The Raiders are 0-3 ATS against teams with winning records this season, while the Lions are 4-0 ATS against teams with losing records. Detroit is far better coached and more creative offensively, and unlike last week when Jared Goff was constantly under pressure, Las Vegas enters ranked 30th in the NFL when pressuring the QB.

This is a story of two teams going in different directions. The Lions come off a road loss ending a four-game win and cover streak. The Raiders are a mess and just had a locker room meeting to say all the things they want, including words about Josh McDaniels. The thing is the Raiders don’t have the ability to change if they want to. They are who they are, very mediocre. Jimmy Garoppolo is expected to play, but he’s timid and unsure of himself. The Lions are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games. Jared Goff has it down. Lions to cover.

There are several injury concerns for the Lions, including whether Amon-Ra St. Brown (questionable, illness) will play through the flu. But he missed Week 5 vs. Carolina and Detroit still won 42-24. At home, the Lions are on a 12-3 ATS run while averaging 32.5 points. This is a Raiders defense that just made Tyler Bagent look like a potential NFL starter. With Detroit coming off a blowout loss in Baltimore and heading into its bye, I'm expecting a highly focused effort. Jimmy Garoppolo (8 INTs in five games) ranks 29th in PFF grade under pressure. Look for Aidan Hutchinson (4.5 sacks) and safety Kerby Joseph to make a big impact.

The Lions are looking to bounce back from a rough loss in Baltimore, and I expect focus from the defense after allowing 503 yards in that game. They've had some very good games against limited offenses this season, and they'll get to face a Raiders offense that can't run the ball and hasn't gotten to 20 points on its own all year, with a late safety against the Patriots getting them to 21. The Raiders' kicking game is also less trustworthy this week with Daniel Carlson nursing a groin injury, which could cost them key points in their quest to reach 20. Let's count on more of the same from the Raiders offense in primetime.

At 5'9" 200 lbs., Gibbs is far from a prototypical between the tackles running back. While I think he has a big game on Monday night with David Montgomery once again out, I see a split of 12 carries and up to six receptions as compared to handing him the ball 15+ times. In five games this season, Gibbs has exceeded this number once and I'll side against it again in what I think will be a Detroit blowout. Look for third string running back Craig Reynolds to get plenty of action in the second half if my game flow prediction proves correct.

Mayer played 93% of the snaps with Las Vegas' starters in last week's loss to Chicago so playing time likely won't be an issue on Monday night. He has nine catches on 13 targets over the last three weeks and should be in line for more volume against Detroit, which has surrendered the third most receiving yards to tight ends in 2023.

Jimmy Garoppolo will start for the Raiders, which means a ton of targets are coming Jakobi Meyers' way. In the four games Garoppolo has played, Meyers has been targeted 10, 12, 10 and 7 times. Meyers has reeled in nine, seven, seven and five catches in those games. With the Raiders likely playing catch-up Monday night, I'll pay the heavy juice on this receptions prop.

): I am playing this game big and spread out a lot of units, so I am hedging slightly here with the size of this bet. Josh McDaniels might be trying to save his job, and maybe Aidan O’Connell comes in for Jimmy G and they get something going in garbage time (which could be early third quarter). But more likely, Jimmy G throws a few picks and the Lions – who won four straight by 14 or more before laying an egg at Baltimore – pick up there and win big. This looks like a mismatch to me, and the bottom is falling out in Las Vegas.

This kid has the loose hips and explosion to do this on one grab. With no David Montgomery and Gibbs looking more at ease by the week, this total is way too low for me. Yeah some of the 9 catch production last week was in garbage time, but he also has 5 targets or more in 3 of his last 5 games and 15 in the last 2 games alone without Montgomery.

I love Goff in this spot against a middling at best defense at home, with basically a full compliment of pass-catchers. Even if this is a blowout, I don't think Dan Campbell calls off the dogs until the fourth quarter. Plus money on a total this manageable is something I want to grab now. Goff is the NFL's No. 2 passer at home since last season (115.2 rating 17/2 TD/INT. LV on the road allows a 105.6 rating. Goff's average production in his last seven at home: 25/35 281 yds 2.4 TD/ 0.29 INT. He'll be well above average on MNF. Value is low on the TD total; I'd take alternate 3 TDS.

I am playing some alternate lines straight up and in parlays. They have topped 28 points in 5 of their last 7 road games. Goff has a 115.2 rating at home since the start of '33 with 17 TDs and 2 INTs. Dan Campbell wants his team to send the kind of message to the Raiders - in their first MNF home game since 18 - that the Ravens sent to Detroit last week. Lions OL is legit and will focus on Maxx Crosby ... all you have to worry about. They average 31/G at home this season and the Raiders can't run the ball to sustain drives which means time and volume for the Lions to amass yards and points.

I project the Lions to go over 30 points in this game and quite likely over 33. Even 38 wouldn't shock me. Highly efficient offense at home vs. a bad road defense that got schooled by a D2 QB last week. Lions will show no mercy after thrashing by Ravens last week. Last 7 Lions home game avg score: 33-20.

If you look at last week's matchup vs the Ravens, the lone positive takeaway was how much pressure Aidan Hutchinson was getting on Lamar Jackson. Neither of the Raider QBs possess that level of elusiveness, so they'll get sack and give their offense more opportunities to find wins and points.

Jahmyr Gibbs will handle lead back duties for the second week in a row with David Montomgery set to miss this game due to a rib injury. Gibbs has handled two starts in his absence against much better run defenses in Atlanta and Balitmore and has eclipsed this line in both starts averaging over 5.0 YPC. Now he will face a dismal Las Vegas run defense that hasn't been able to stop anyone. Look for the Lions to lean heavily on their star RB in what should be a potential smash spot.

The Raiders should have Jimmy Garoppolo back for this game, but does it matter? They've scored 17, 10, 18, 17, 16, 21 and 12 points this season, so their ceiling hasn't exactly been high even with the QB1. With the Vegas run game under three yards per rush, the Lions defense can focus on erasing the WRs, and they won four straight against limited offenses by 14-plus points prior to last week's no-show, which came against an elite team in a second straight road game. This is a much better spot, and Detroit should bounce back for a double-digit win.