The post-Aaron Rodgers era in Green Bay began with a snazzy win over Chicago. This time, though, QB Jordan Love cannot rely on injured RB Aaron Jones, who accounted for two TDs and 127 all-purpose yards, and WR Christian Watson, both likely out with ailing hamstrings. The Packers' rush defense, ranked 26th a year ago, flashed signs of improvement, but it must deal with the league's most run-minded offense fortified by rookie RB Bijan Robinson. QB Desmond Ridder does not throw much, yet this stat is applause-worthy: no picks in five career starts.

You may recall my favorite play last week was the Falcons and they are one of my favorite plays this week as well. It's unclear if Christian Watson and Aaron Jones are going to play but they appear to be trending toward sitting on Sunday. Add to that this Falcons defense quietly made some major upgrades in the off season and should give Jordan Love a lot more trouble than what he received last week at Chicago. The Falcons rushing attack will slowly grind away at this strong Packers defense and capture the win at home.

Bijan Robinson had a somewhat disappointing season debut but I expect him to eclipse 12-14 rushing attempts on Sunday. I like him to easily eclipse 60 rushing yards and am comfortable playing this up to 60.5.

Led the Packers in routes run (24) and lined up all over the formation last week. He had 50 yards, should have had over 100 yards after a Love misfire on a deep target when he was wide open, not to mention a TD when he slipped after the catch on another deep catch. Musgrave will see a Falcons defense that opened the year playing zone coverage over 70% of their snaps. That suggests they fear giving up the big play, which helps those underneath throws connect for Musgrave. The Panthers version of him, Hayden Hurst, came up with 41 yards.

The Falcons are much healthier than the Packers entering this intriguing Week 2 matchup, with Green Bay potentially down running back Aaron Jones (hamstring), wideout Christian Watson (hamstring) and linebacker Quay Walker (concussion), who had an interception and four tackles versus Chicago. Walker led the team in tackles last year. The Falcons could be without LB Troy Andersen (10 tackles, half-sack) due to a concussion, but CB Jeff Okudah and RB Cordarrelle Patterson have returned. Led by safety Jessie Bates, Atlanta's defense looks much improved. The Packers' defensive front dominated the Bears' weak offensive line in Week 1. Now Green Bay faces a top-tier O-line and perhaps the NFL's top ground attack.

The Atlanta defense is much better than even I anticipated. Granted, the Falcons played against a questionable OL and a rookie QB. The Packers ran the ball well against Chicago, but this a much stiffer defensive test. Desmond Ridder won't light up the Green Bay secondary, but he also isn't likely to turn it over. I also don't expect the Falcons to abandon the run the way Chicago did. Fields threw 37 times, Ridder might not be at 37 attempts on the season by the end of this game. Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allegier are a formidable duo in that backfield behind a strong run-blocking offensive line. I bet this game closes as a pick 'em, so feel free just to take the moneyline.

Did you see Desmond Ridder complete a pass that went even 8 yards in the air Sunday? Did you see any tangible signs that Drake London and Kyle Pitts are paid to catch footballs for a living? You can say it's just one game, but this was going on late last season as well. Jordan Love got much more comfortable as Week 1 played out. He should have a healthier cast around him by the weekend – save for perhaps Aaron Jones – but I'm not inclined to wait for injury reports late in the week. I want to grab this line before the Falcons get any more points.