This total has ticked down a full point at some outlets and, even though snow is expected in Buffalo, it shouldn't slow these clubs too much. With a spot in the AFC title game on the line, look for Joe Burrow and Josh Allen to lead their respective offenses to plenty of scoring opportunities. This could start slow, but a second-half surge sends it Over hte posted total.

The Bengals’ injuries along the offensive line are a legitimate concern, but they are also on an 8-1 ATS streak as road underdogs, and the Bills have consistently struggled to stop quality offenses. Buffalo is 2-7 ATS this season against the top 20, 1-6 against the top 10 with no such covers since Oct. 16. Cincinnati is on a 7-2 ATS streak with its lone failures coming by a combined 1.5 points to Baltimore, both outright wins by a touchdown-plus. Joe Burrow is the more reliable quarterback this season, he should be able to exploit the Bills secondary with Ja’Marr Chase & Co. This spread has ballooned too far. There will be a moneyline sprinkle on Cincinnati outright.

Chase is an absolute stud and I still punch myself in the head daily for trading him on Fantasy rookie dynasty draft day in 2021 because he was dropping so many passes in training camp/preseason. Oops. Chase has topped 84 receiving yards six times this season (exactly 84 last week) and Buffalo hasn't given up at least 85 to a wideout since Dec. 17 vs. Miami (Jaylen Waddle).

Diggs has gotten back on track after a brief late season slump and recorded seven receptions in two consecutive games. He has made at least seven grabs in ten of eighteen appearances this season. Both the Bills and the Bengals are two of the highest volume passing teams in the league this season which could result in a ton of targets for Diggs. I also love the fact that you can find this prop at plus odds in a potential shootout. I expect Josh Allen to lean heavily on his WR1 in this matchup.

Ja'Marr Chase is averaging nearly 13 targets over his last five games. Last week, the Dolphins No. 1 wideout, Tyreek Hill, drew 15 targets versus the Bills. Because Hill had Skylar Thompson throwing to him, he only made seven grabs. But Chase has Joe Burrow. Chase has cleared this plus-money catch prop in three straight games and four of his last five. Buffalo trots out an elite rush defense (No. 3 in DVOA), so this game will be on Burrow even more than usual. With Cincy's offensive-line injuries, Burrow should hit Chase with multiple quick throws and screens. Go Over 7.5 catches at +102.

I really have no opinion on this middling spread but will play the ML with the news that Cincinnati has ruled out starting right guard Alex Cappa (ankle) and left tackle Jonah Williams (knee). The Bengals are also without right tackle La'el Collins, who tore his ACL in December. Joe Burrow was under siege against Baltimore and that's going to continue behind his JV O-Line Sunday. Will definitely be looking at some Buffalo sack props now. The Bills appear healthy for Sunday.

The Bengals have major offensive line issues (down three starters) and will now face a brilliant defensive head coach in Sean McDermott. The Bengals were outgained in six of seven games against fellow playoff teams. Buffalo owns a +1.1 net yards per play, while Cincinnati is just +0.1. Buffalo owns a +169 point differential, while the Bengals are +96 this season. Josh Allen's QBR is 71.2. Joe Burrow's QBR is 58.5, and that was behind a healthier offensive line. Buffalo owns the better special teams and red-zone stats. Light snow is expected, and that favors the home team. I'm on the Bills.

The Bengals lost left tackle Jonah Williams to injury in the Wild Card round, but backup Jackson Carman acquitted himself well against an elite Ravens defense. I like getting Joe Burrow in the underdog role. The Bengals have played 39 games the past two seasons, counting playoffs, and have lost by more than a field goal only three times (twice to their nemesis, the Browns). Buffalo owns several matchup advantages, plus a strong home field and the emotional angle. But Josh Allen's penchant for turnovers, which I believe will show up versus Lou Anarumo's scheme, has me taking the points.

Cincinnati looked in control in the Week 17 matchup before play was stopped, but they've suffered injuries to two key offensive linemen since, including left tackle Jonah Williams. His replacement was solid last week, but on the road in the playoffs is a much tougher environment. The Bengals offense had just 234 yards against Baltimore and focused on getting the ball out early, and Buffalo has the defensive personnel to excel in that type of game, especially with the Bengals lacking a credible rushing attack. The Bills just have to avoid dumb turnovers after giving the ball away three times in three straight games, but their yards per play edge last week (+2.6) versus the Bengals' struggles (-1.2) makes me think these teams aren't as close as they appeared a few weeks ago.