This is easily the toughest game to prognosticate. With two first-time playoff quarterbacks, Mike Williams out and a live home underdog, it really could go either way. The Jaguars have garnered a lot of momentum from bettors down the stretch of the season, and the atmosphere in Duval during the Titans win last week was simply incredible. It also makes me feel like Jacksonville is getting just a bit too much love for its five game winning streak (only one came against a team above .500). The Jags struggle against the pass, and the Chargers with Justin Herbert are the best throwing team with the best signal caller they will have faced since Nov. 13, a loss to the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. WIth Joey Bosa improving and LA's defense playing better (save for last week), the lean is the visitors with the meager spread.

Ekeler has been held under this line in 11 of 17 games this season including a game against the Jags where he handled 4 carries for only 5 rushing yards. The Jags are very stout up front and are 6th in EPA allowed per rushing, while ranking 11th in rushing DVOA. Without Mike Williams on the field, I expect the Chargers to lean heavily on Ekeler as a pass catcher in this matchup and I just think this line should be in the mid 40s.

The Jaguars own a +0.2 net yards per play, while the Chargers are -0.6 this season. This is a tough travel spot for the Chargers who played in Denver on Sunday and now travel to Florida with one less day to prepare. Los Angeles went 1-5 straight-up against fellow playoff teams this season. Mike Williams is out, and he's been huge on third down and in the red zone. Joey Bosa will play but is not 100%. Jacksonville coach Doug Pederson has won multiple playoff games (including a Super Bowl) while Brandon Staley is making his postseason debut. I'm on the home dog.

No Mike Williams should mean a few more targets for Ekeler and thus more yardage. I prefer the yards to the 4.5 receptions number because obviously Ekeler could top the yards on one play. He has topped this yardage total in the past two games and also in the Bolts' Week 3 loss to the Jags.

The Chargers may or may not have Mike Williams after the receiver failed to practice all week, and that could be good news for Ekeler's receiving numbers. The back averaged more than 10 targets per game and nearly 50 receiving yards in the four contests Williams missed. He also had eight catches for 48 yards in the Jacksonville game earlier in the season where he got nothing on the ground. The Jaguars have surrendered the second-most yards and receptions as well as the most targets to the RB position this year, so the Chargers should be planning to lean on Ekeler in the passing game in this matchup.

It's going to be almost freezing at kickoff in Jacksonville on Saturday night -- trust me, I'm not looking forward to the cold snap coming through Florida, although few people from Florida consider Jacksonville as part of the state. It's basically Georgia. In their past five games, the Bolts are allowing just 15.0 ppg. In their past five, the Jags are allowing 15.6 ppg. Two warm-weather QBs in Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence may have some issues in the cold.

We have two good offenses and two bad defenses in a great matchup for points. Both defenses have been better as of late, but that’s pretty misleading given the caliber of their competition (L.A's last four: Broncos, Rams, Colts and Titans; Jacksonville's last three: Titans, Texans and Jets). Neither defense will be able to stop much, and we have two coaches who aren’t afraid to push for points on fourth down, leading to either more scoring or shorter fields for the opposition.

The path to beating the Jaguars is through the passing game, and Keenan Allen will certainly be Justin Herbert's favorite target. Over the last five games, Keenan has collected 12, eight, 11, five and eight receptions. Moreover, the Jaguars are particularly weak against slot receivers, providing a favorable recipe to topple this big reception number. I like the receptions prop instead of the yardage prop because of how Allen likes to work the short area of the field.

The Chargers come into this game as the much higher-rated team, but why? They've had one win against a winning team (Miami), and they often appear to be less than the sum of their parts, playing to the level of their competition. That includes losing to Denver last week despite starters playing much of the game. The Jaguars want to run the ball, which plays to the Chargers defense's weakness, and even if the Jacksonville pass defense struggles against Justin Herbert I think the offense can keep up. Home 'dogs of less than three points are 8-1 ATS in the wild-card round, and the Chargers have had a tough travel schedule and one less day of rest. I like Jacksonville to pull off the upset.

There's one constant with the Chargers: They can't stop the run. Latavius Murray ripped off 103 yards on 15 carries in Week 18, and Cam Akers went for 123 yards on 19 carries the week before. For the season, LA gives up an NFL-high 5.4 yards per carry. Etienne has been stymied by elite rush defenses like Tennessee's, but he shreds bad rush defenses. In the first meeting with the Chargers, Jacksonville's James Robinson took advantage with 100 yards on 17 carries while Etienne was limited to 45 yards on 13 carries. Robinson isn't on the Jaguars anymore; it's Etienne's backfield. Go Over on rushing yards.