The Titans have decided to completely mail in this game, an understandable move given it's meaningless to them and numerous players need to get healthy for next week. The Cowboys do not have that luxury, and given they are playing ahead of the Eagles this week, they have no choice but to go all out for most of the game. There are concerns about Dallas resting starters once it has a significant lead; that could open the door for a backdoor cover. However, Tennessee is sitting nearly half of its starters. Its defense is already paper thin, and its offense already lacked playmakers ... so this is going to be quite a mismatch. The Cowboys have already won by 14+ point margins five times this season against teams that actually played their starters. With Dak Prescott, they are the top scoring offense in the NFL. This is a *half unit* wager in an island game, but it's worth getting a taste of Dallas in this spot.

The Titans are going to have to throw the ball with King Henry likely to miss this game. Austin Hooper has gone over this number in five of his last seven games averaging 3.4 receptions per game. The Titans will struggle to run the ball and they will likely be playing from behind. Expect the Titans to throw the ball throughout most of the second half and Hooper to go over this number.

It's unusual for a team in a playoff chase to concede a game. It's happening here. The Titans, whose only game left that matters is next week against Jacksonville, is holding out up to 10 regulars -- notably RB Derrick Henry and backup QB Malik Willis. Third-stringer Joshua Dobbs steps in behind center, and he will be handcuffed with Henry out. Dobbs last saw action a year ago and is working on a short week. Normally, yielding nearly two touchdowns is ill-advised, but the Cowboys are explosive enough to cover. They have rung up at least 40 points in four of the past eight outings. Dallas has plenty of incentive, with an NFC East title possible, if unlikely.

The Titans are probably going to trail big fairly early and have to air it out -- whether that's struggling rookie Malik Willis or backup Joshua Dobbs. There's now some scuttlebutt that Dobbs may actually start, and that only helps Woods in my opinion. Woods averages nearly 30 ypg on the season and over his last three games has drawn 16 targets, which have resulted in 11 receptions for 91 yards (30.3 ypg).

The Cowboys have won five of their last six games, and the last five games have gone Over the total. They’ll be facing a Titans squad that is sinking fast with losses in its last five (0-4-1 against-the-spread) after a 7-1 run in which the team covered all eight. This Tennessee team peaked way too soon. Now running back Derrick Henry is unlikely to play, and Malik Willis starts at QB with a crew of unspectacular receivers. The Cowboys have scored 34 points or more in five of their last six. The Titans can’t keep up. Cowboys cover.

Dalton Schultz is coming off two relatively quiet games, amassing 58 yards on five catches. But this is a smash spot for Schultz versus Tennessee. The Titans give up the most receiving yards to tight ends (69.5 per game). And it appears as if Tony Pollard (thigh) could sit out. Pollard has drawn 18 targets the past three games, meaning those mostly short passes are now available. Go Over 38.5 receiving yards at -115.

The Cowboys come to Nashville Thursday night to face a Titans team that, well, is on a massive slide down. Injuries are the culprit, close to setting the NFL record two seasons in a row. That said there's a matchup here I want to exploit. Tennessee has given up the 4th most catches (118) and 4th most receiving yards (1,349) to slot WR's this season...and CeeDee Lamb has the most receiving yards in the NFL from the slot position at 759. In fact over his last three games Lamb is 18 for 18 from the slot for 240 yards total. And again, that's just from the slot, CeeDee is active from any position. Taking a shot here on a number we should be able to exploit.

Dallas still has a shot at the NFC's top seed, so you know the Cowboys will be going all-out. Tennessee, however, has nothing at stake Thursday; the AFC South title comes down to who wins Titans-Jaguars in Week 18. Titans coach Mike Vrabel, whose team leads the NFL in games lost to injury, suggested he may rest key contributors who are playing through injuries. Either way, one team has a functioning offense and other has Malik Willis starting at quarterback. Even old reliable, Derrick Henry, is struggling with ball security..He's fumbled four times in the past three games and his third-quarter fumble last Sunday sparked Houston to a 19-14 comeback win. Lay the big number as the Titans' freefall continues.