The weather outside is frightful ... Josh Allen has a cannon but he is not going to be able to throw it downfield much tonight. Devin Singletary doesn't do much as a pass catcher out of the backfield, so I have to think James Cook gets at least a few dump-offs on screens, etc. Catch 2 for minus-4 yards, I don't care. Two games ago, Cook had six targets and six catches.

With all the talk about the Dolphins struggles in the cold we skipped over how the Bills tend to play in the cold, specifically Josh Allen. A member of my Data Science team pointed out that in Josh Allen's last 6 games in below 32-degree temperature he's thrown under this line in all 6 of them, averaging 184.5 passing yards across those games. Regardless of weather, Josh Allen has gone under this line in 4 of his last 6 games this season. To top it all off, our SportslineAI model is predicting 228 passing yards. The statistics point to the under.

Knox has reeled in at least three receptions in nine of 12 appearances this season. He will face off against a Dolphins pass defense that has surrendered the second-most receptions (79) to opposing tight ends this season. In a game where weather could limit downfield passing, I like Knox to continue to operate as a reliable underneath target for Josh Allen. Both of these teams struggle to run the ball, so we could see plenty of passing volume as well.

The Dolphins had to bring heaters to Los Angeles and now they have to go to snowy Buffalo. Tua struggled on Sunday night only throwing for 145 yards on just 36% completion percentage. In the Dolphins first meeting with the Bills, Tua only threw for 186 yards. Last season in Buffalo, Tua only through for 205 yards, and that was in October. The Bills pass rush should be able to put pressure on Tua. Tua should have another tough game. Take the under.

The Bills are undergoing a changing of the guard at running back, with Singletary playing less than 50% of the snaps in each of the past two games for the first time all year as rookie James Cook has been worked in more. Singletary saw just eight carries last week despite the Bills winning most of the second half and Cook largely being ineffective. The Dolphins are one of only four teams that hasn't allowed 1,000 rushing yards to running backs all year as teams are able to largely attack their defense through the air. While I like this prop, I would instead play Singletary Under 54.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards as he's virtually nonexistent in the passing game at this point.

Needless to say, I'd buy this down to -6.5 to avoid a possible push, but I don't see it getting there by itself. It's total Buffalo weather on Saturday night, which is why I already played an under Tua Tagovailoa passing yards prop here on the site. Tua has not looked good in back-to-back road losses and weather wasn't a factor in those. The Miami defense is one of the NFL's best when the Fins are in south Florida but one of the worst away. This might be a blowout, but I'd still pay the small tax to get to -6.5.

Miami will play its third straight road game on a short week. Its defense was on the field for over 150 plays the past two games. Tua Tagovailoa is 6-9-1 ATS on the road, compared to 12-4 ATS at home. In their two-point loss back in Week 3, the Bills rolled up 497 yards to 212 for the Dolphins. Buffalo lost due to seven penalties and a fumble. When playing at home in a same-season rematch, Buffalo is on a10-4 ATS run while averaging 30.1 points. Lay the touchdown.

Not only are the Dolphins bound for their dreaded third consecutive road game, but they are destined for sub-freezing temperatures. Hardly ideal for a South Florida team. Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa, a Hawaii native, might cope with his first game in snow. Weather aside, the 'Fins have dropped the first two games in their extended travels. Do not be fooled by Miami's 21-19 win earlier this season at home. The Bills outgained them 497-212 and appeared to be affected by the heat. No worries in the rematch.

Miami's Tua Tagovailoa is warm-weather quarterback, it's as simple as that. The former Alabama star and Hawaii native turned in one of the worst games of his career last season when the Dolphins played the Tennessee Titans in Nashville under near-freezing, wet conditions. The forecast for Saturday night in Buffalo: Low 22F. Winds WSW at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 70%. Snow accumulating 1 to 3 inches. Under at -131.